Torneo Inicial Tip Sheet: Lanus' title hopes to go down the River?

New River Plate boss Ramon Diaz

With just two rounds of fixtures to go Ed Malyon previews the action in the Torneo Inicial, and our man believes the title could be decided this weekend if Lanus fail to beat River Plate...

Friday

Godoy Cruz v Quilmes - 20:00

These two side occupy the bottom two berths of the form table in Argentina's Torneo Inicial and will just be hoping for the season to draw to an end. Quilmes arguably need a result more as they are battling against relegation in the three-year points average table, but Godoy Cruz will have the boost of a new manager and their good home form.

Martn Palermo has taken over in Mendoza and despite having no experience of management there is hope of a rejuvenation for the Tomba, and they're still 2.02 favourites despite him having never coached a professional team in his life.

If the league was decided on home form, Godoy Cruz would be eighth, and the long journey for Quilmes is likely to play a part. Unfortunately though, it is impossible to back hosts having lost their last four games and being winless in eight, so no bet here.

Coln de Santa Fe v Argentinos Juniors - 22:15

Just three points separates these sides in midtable and it's hard to read anything into this late-season clash. The inclination is to go with the hosts, not just because of the home advantage playing up in Santa Fe, but also because they have Emmanuel Gigliotti up front who keeps on scoring goals, but they actually have one of the worst home records in the division and this one looks like the best value will be in backing the draw at 3.211/5 with a view to laying.

Racing Club v All Boys - 00:30

Racing's title bid is over, but their fans will be expecting them to beat All Boys at El Cilindro this weekend.

Their great success this season has been the introduction of their talented youngsters to the side, and if the experienced heads that Luis Zubelda had brought in had performed to their capabilities then they could have been going into this game still with a chance at glory.

As it is, there's nothing to play for except pride and a hatred of All Boys. The Floresta side are renown for their no-nonsense (read: dirty) playing style and their was bad blood between these two sides recently when Racing's star player Giovanni Moreno was seriously injured by a reckless challenge by Albo midfielder Hugo Barrientos.

The hosts are quite short at 1.8810/11 but are just about backable, and while they doubtlessly have enough ability to win, it may be worth watching the first five and backing them in-play if the desire is there.

Saturday

River Plate v Lans - 21:00

This could be the game where the Torneo Inicial title is decided, as Lans are likely to have to win to keep their hopes alive with rivals Vlez two points ahead of them and facing rock-bottom Unin at the same time.

There is a bit of a grudge match feel to this game in some ways, as it was this exact fixture, and a Lans victory, which sent River Plate to the relegation playoffs in the summer of 2011 and eventually to their historic demotion. River have not had a great campaign on their return to the top flight, but the chance to deprive Lans of a title could well be some consolation.

River sacked manager Matas Almeyda this week after a below-expectations season, and have moved quickly to replace him with Ramn Diaz. The debate over Diaz' abilities is best left for another day as he won't be in the dugout today and it is hard to know what effect this will have on the side.

While Lans 3.211/5 have all the desire to win this, in what is the first of two cup finals for them, River have found themselves with quite the draw habit this season, tieing eight of their seventeen games and five of their last six.

All things considered, it is probably wisest to lay the hosts, whose worldwide name tends to make them a shorter price than they should be anyway.

Belgrano v Tigre - 21:00

This could be the best bet of the week thanks to Thursday evening's turn of events. Belgrano need to win to maintain their chances of the title - hence the tri-simultaneous kick offs - and Tigre ran themselves into the ground in Bogot this week as they qualified for the Copa Sudamericana final. There's no doubt that the visitors will be riding a wave of euphoria but the league won't feel like their focus this week, and what was already a very tough game will be much harder with those lagging legs that spent so much time defending against Millionarios in midweek.

1.9310/11 seems a good price for the Pirates to grab a home win, but the title dream will likely be taken out of their grasp by events in Liniers.

Arsenal v Boca Juniors - 00:15

Neither of these sides have too much to play for, with Arsenal already qualified for the Copa Libertadores and Boca virtually there too. Julio Csar Falcioni is going through a kind of inverse honeymoon period where everyone knows he will not be Boca manager when they come back in January and he has suddenly started winning games. By finally discarding some of the aging, ponderous players that he'd persisted with in the early part of the season, he made space in his side to test his young pibes and they have passed with flying colours; particularly young playmaker Leandro Paredes and the energetic Pol Fernandez.

Arsenal have won their last three on the spin, but frankly they were playing rubbish opposition, and Boca will be far more of a test. Last year's champions have sold a couple of their key players but Lisandro Lopez has remained. The central defender is destined to be a star in Europe, but until then he continues to save the Sarand side's defence and will be key in trying to shutout Boca - as they did in the Copa Argentina final that finished 0-0 a few weeks ago.

Lay Arsenal at 3.211/5 or back the unders for this one, with it likely to be tight.