X Factor 2012: Light relief of Rylan could keep him in the show

James Arthur: a lacklustre performance last week assigned him to the Bottom Two

During The X Factor in 2011, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of 1,000 into a whopping 1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. Last year, though, unlikely victors Little Mix inflicted a gaping wound on the betting bank of the Sage of the X-Factor (he makes us call him that). Will he return to winning ways this year?

Pride comes before a fall. Never has a truism being so emphatically demonstrated as when Ella's elimination - preceded by a sing-off with James - dealt a hefty blow to the likely profitability of this column. Tulisa was seething, putting Ella's exit down to a lazy electorate who felt their favourite was safe, and so did not feel the need to vote. And she's right to be angry. Low turnouts for the Police Commissioner elections is one thing, but people died for our right to cast a reality-show vote, and those who failed to pick up the phone for Ella have dishonoured the memories of those brave campaigners.

There were other explanations, of course, for Ella's departure. Some have put it down to a post-modern backlash against the reality-show phenomena. Others take a different tack to Tulisa, suggesting it is democracy itself that is to blame for the calamitous situation we now find ourselves in.

I, though, know the truth behind Ella's exit. I got too cocky. It's as simple as that. There was I, sitting on what looked like a guaranteed profit when any one of the big three of Ella, James and Jahmene went on to win the show, and I started crowing about my omnipotence. And as all serious punters know, when you start to think you're invincible, the betting gods have no choice but to punish you. So I'm sorry Ella, I'm the reason you had to leave the show. All I can do is offer my apologies: I'm humbled.

It's worth remembering, though, that whilst bruised, the portfolio still has every chance of returning a profit by the show's end. If any of Jahmene, James or Union J go on to win, there will be more than enough money to come back to cover the losses of last week and keep us in the black. But given the shock of last week, and a sense that the aforementioned deities are waiting to mete out more retribution, I'm going to secure my profits and back Rylan and Christopher in the winner market. I've learnt my lesson.

As for the Week 8 markets, it's hard to know where the value lies. Of the remaining contestants, only Jahmene and Christopher are yet to experience the ignominy of a bottom two berth, but then that didn't help Ella and James going into last week's show, so who's to say anyone is safe?

James' performance was lacklustre last time, and I'm inclined to think that, with a return to the interesting, kooky, you-made-it-your-own style of previous weeks, he should be safe - especially as the Abba and Motown theme will give him plenty of options to get creative with.

Another who should be comfortable this week is Rylan Clark (what price on Dancing Queen being in the mash-up?), so although he's been in the Bottom Two twice before, I'm inclined to think that his odds to be there again are too short, and so will be laying him at 1.384/11 in the hope that he is safe again. For all that he might infuriate some, he at least brings some light relief to the overly-earnest proceedings each week, and that might be the reason why people are keeping him.

Recommendations:
1-point back Rylan Clark at 34.033/1 in Winner market.
2-point back Christopher Maloney at 9.809/1 in Winner market.
3-point lay Rylan Clark at 1.384/11 in Bottom Two market.

Previous recommendations:
2-point back James Arthur at 4.804/1 in Winner market - OPEN.
8-point lay Jahmene Douglas at 3.8014/5 in Winner market - OPEN.
6-point back Jahmene Douglas at 8.6015/2 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back James Arthur at 11.5n/a in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back James Arthur at 10.09/1 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Union J at 16.5n/a in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Groups at 6.806/1 in Winning Category market - OPEN.

2-point lay Gary Barlow at 1.664/6 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market - WON.
1-point back District3 / Union J at 4.804/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - WON.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 1.804/5 in Over 28s market - WON.
1-point back District3 at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back MK1 at 2.707/4 in Bottom Two market - WON.
1-point back Jade Ellis at 8.207/1 in 4th Elimination market - WON.

1 -point back Gary Barlow at 2.407/5 in 1st Mentor Eliminated market - LOST.
9-point back Ella Henderson at 2.206/5 in Winner market - LOST.
4-point back Ella Henderson at 3.002/1 in Winner market - LOST.
3-point back Union J at 2.506/4 in bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark / District3 at 4.407/2 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Rylan Clark / Union J at 8.207/1 in Bottom Two Combo market - LOST.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 5.509/2 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back District3 at 2.809/5 in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1-point back Lucy Spraggan at 12.011/1 in 4th Elimination market - LOST.
1-point lay Christopher Maloney at 1.412/5 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Times Red at 16.015/1 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 14.013/1 in Winner market - LOST.
1-point back Kye Sones at 11.010/1 in Winner market - LOST.

Profit/Loss so far: -10.49pts