вторник, 27 ноября 2012 г.

Bundesliga Betting: Back on-fire Meier to help Eintracht beat Mainz

Eintracht striker Alex Meier has scored nine Bundesliga goals

Bundesliga fans will be treated to a rare set of midweek fixtures this week, and Kevin Hatchard's been picking out the best bets.

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Mainz, Tue 19:00 BST

Match Odds: Eintracht 2.1411/10, Mainz 3.814/5, the draw 3.613/5

After a brief wobble that saw them take just a point from three games, 4th-placed Eintracht Frankfurt have returned to form. At the weekend they battled to a 1-1 draw at fellow high-flyers Schalke, and the week before they won 4-2 against Augsburg, so they head into this derby with Mainz full of confidence.

The Schalke result was impressive, as the Eagles recovered quickly from going behind and then took the fight to the Royal Blues. Towards the end Armin Veh's men had to dig in to secure a point, especially after Karim Matmour's 87th-minute red card. Goalkeeper Kevin Trapp maintained his fine form, and Eintracht deserve credit for having 51% possession away to one of the division's top sides. Eintracht have started the season so well that it's easy to forget they were in Bundesliga Zwei last term.

Eintracht's home record this season is excellent, with five wins, two draws and no defeats. Apart from a flat display in a 1-1 draw with struggling Greuther Furth, Eintracht have performed well in every single home game. Eintracht have scored 18 goals in seven home games - only Bayern Munich have scored more often on their own turf. Striker Alex Meier has played particularly well at the Commerzbank Arena, scoring six of his nine Bundesliga goals there.

Mainz have made a decent start, but their away form has been poor. Thomas Tuchel's men have recorded just one win in seven games on their travels, suffering four defeats. Mainz suffered a brave 2-1 home reverse against Dortmund on Saturday, and I wonder if those efforts will take their toll.

Eintracht's fine home form and Mainz's disappointing results on the road make the price of 2.1211/10 on offer for a home win pretty attractive. I also like the look of backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8810/11 - six of Eintracht's seven home games have featured Over 2.5 Goals, and Mainz have scored in five of their seven away games.

Recommended Bets: Back Eintracht to win at 2.1411/10

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8810/11

Freiburg vs Bayern Munich, Wed 19:00 BST

Match Odds: Freiburg 10.5n/a, Bayern 1.374/11, the draw 5.24/1

Bayern Munich were too hot to handle on Saturday, as they demolished Hannover 5-0. Javi Martinez started the rout with his first goal for the Bavarians after three minutes, while Mario Gomez scored less than a minute after coming on to make his first Bundesliga appearance of the campaign.

At home Bayern are breathtaking, but on their travels things haven't been running as smoothly. In their last Bundesliga away game they were held to a 1-1 draw at Bavarian rivals Nurnberg, and they needed a late Thomas Muller goal to scrape a 1-1 draw at Valencia in the Champions League.

Freiburg are up to a dizzying sixth in the table, and coach Christian Streich warrants plenty of praise for lifting his side seven points clear of the bottom three. Streich has built this success on a solid defence which has conceded just 14 goals in 13 games - only Bayern have conceded fewer.

Freiburg shredded Stuttgart 3-0 at the weekend, and they have kept clean sheets in three of their last four home games. Bayern have conceded only one Bundesliga goal away from home, and with two good defences on show I think Under 2.5 Goals is overpriced at 2.56/4.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.56/4

Nurnberg vs Hoffenheim, Wed 19:45 BST

Match Odds: Nurnberg 2.447/5, Hoffenheim 3.211/5, the draw 3.45n/a

Having ground out a dour goalless draw at Greuther Furth at the weekend, Nurnberg now face another member of the relegation dogfight club (I know you're not supposed to talk about dogfight club, that's the first rule) as they welcome Hoffenheim to Bavaria.

Nurnberg have climbed out of the relegation zone at Hoffenheim's expense thanks to a run of one defeat in four games. As is often the case with Dieter Hecking's men, these results have been based on hard work and tactical discipline rather than sparkling attacking play. Nurnberg held Bayern Munich to a 1-1 draw in their last home game, but they have scored more than once in just one of their 13 Bundesliga games.

Hoffenheim suffered their seventh league defeat of the season on Sunday as they went down 2-1 at home to Bayer Leverkusen. TSG did at least show some fighting spirit in the second half, but coach Markus Babbel is on the brink. Hoffenheim have won just once on their travels, and they have scored just one goal in their last three away games.

I think this will be a tight and tense affair, with both teams scared to lose.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at 1.910/11

Back the draw at Half Time at 2.111/10

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