Our final selection runs at Musselburgh
Today we have two bets from Newbury and a Saint Andrew's Day special from Musselburgh...
We kick off in the 13:30 at Newbury, a handicap chase restricted to conditional riders. As you'd expect, there are a fair number of in-form types, but none would be as unexposed at Ballywatt. Although placed in Irish points, Ballywatt has run only four times under Rules, seemingly just learning over hurdles last winter before showing up much better when a close third at Bangor on his chasing debut. That race was over slightly further than today's contest, so it's perhaps significant that Ballywatt appeared to travel best, even leading briefly before he ran out of puff close home. The fact a tongue tie has been deemed necessary today suggests that possibly wasn't purely a fitness issue, but even so it can't be denied that Ballywatt has more room for improvement than just about anything in the race.
We remain in Berkshire for SmartPlay number two, in the Pertemps Qualifier at 14:40. Bakbenscher has understandably been popular overnight, though with the fancy prices about him fast disappearing it's worth pointing out just how good a prospect Ballybough Pat is. Practically all of his form to date looks strong, having now-useful hurdlers behind on his first two starts before tasting defeat for the first time in the Persian War at Chepstow last month. He finished runner-up to a very good prospect from the Nicholls yard at Chepstow and, although the proximity of outsider Lienosus in third looked somewhat conspicuous at the time, that one has since done his bit for the form by running well at Haydock. It's interesting that connections have chosen the handicap route for Ballybough Pat at this stage, presumably seeing a BHA mark of 132 as well within his grasp, and we think he could be the breakthrough horse for his up-and-coming trainer, Anthony Honeyball.
Just 15 minutes later we're at Musselburgh, hoping that a useful Flat performer can transfer some of that ability to hurdles now he's been switched to handicaps. The horse in question is War Poet, who finished fifth in the Old Newton Cup during the summer yet starts life in handicap hurdles from a BHA mark of just 108. Strictly on the bare form of what War Poet has achieved over timber so far, that mark looks fair enough, but he never had the gun put to his head in novices and wouldn't need to reach anything like the heights he's hit on the level to make a mockery of his rating. We have faith in David O'Meara conjuring the required improvement, even if War Poet disappointed on his most recent Flat run, which came on the back of a short break.
Timeform UK SmartPlays
Back Ballywatt @ 5.85/1 in the 13:30 at Newbury
Back Ballybough Pat @ 5.04/1 in the 14:40 Newbury
Back War Poet @ 3.65n/a in the 14:55 at Musselburgh
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