Against All Odds: The Hurricane to prove too strong for Gremio

Hands up if you fancy a lay of Gremio

Gremio travel to the already relegated Figueirense this evening but with just one away victory from their last eight attempts, Paul Robinson thinks they could be a value lay.

Figueirense have had a disastrous campaign that has culminated in relegation from the top flight of Brazilian football. Despite a brief mid-season rally, last year's seventh place finishers have never really looked like they'd stay up. 

Mrcio Goiano's side haven't been quite as bad at home as they have away though. At Estdio Orlando Scarpelli they've lost just two of their last nine, winning four of them. They only have pride to play for tonight, but as it's their last game in front of their own fans, I expect the players to try and lift the spirits of the fans as they head down to Serie B.

Gremio have finished the season quite strongly and have climbed to second place in the table. Coach, Vanderlei Luxemburgo, hasn't seen his side lose since September, however they have drawn too many matches and that has ultimately cost them a tilt at the title.

These draws have been more prevalent on the road than they have had at Estdio Olmpico Monumental. It's now six in their last eight away from home, with the last two coming against Bahia and Portuguesa who are both pretty poor outfits.

Figueirense have had a dire time in 2012 but they have at least been a bit better at home. They will want to send their fans home happy so they will be putting in maximum effort tonight despite having nothing to play for. Gremio are just not good enough on their travels to warrant odds of 1.748/11 and that's why I'm making them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Gremio v Figueirense @ 1.748/11

2012 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 268 pts
Returned: 277.17 pts
P/L + 9.17 pts