Ligue 1 Betting: Marseille's slump set to continue

Marseille manager Elie Baup has had plenty to wince about

L'OM and Bordeaux are among the sides set to suffer this weekend, says James Eastham.

Nice v Nancy (16th v 20th) Sat, 19:00 GMT

Nothing would please me more than seeing Nice move up the table. They have played some fantastic football this season and would be in the top-half but for the individual mistakes that continue to plague them in their own penalty area. Once those problems are resolved Claude Puel's side will be a match for most teams in this division.

I like their odds-against price to beat Nancy this weekend. The visitors have lost seven of their last nine league games, failing to score in six of those. So far Nancy coach Jean Fernandez has been utterly flummoxed by his side's problems. Free-roaming attacker Yohan Mollo, often the saviour last season, is out of form, and Sebastien Puygrenier is a shadow of the commanding centre-half that marshalled the defence so well several seasons ago.

Back Nice to make it two home wins from two after their impressive 3-1 League Cup victory over Lyon on Wednesday afternoon.

Ajaccio v Marseille (14th v 3rd) Sun, 13:00 GMT

It's no surprise Marseille are favourites - but should Ajaccio really be as big as 3.65n/a on Sunday? The Corsicans are not just unbeaten at home this season - they're unbeaten at home in 2012 (W6-D8-L0). 

Those stats alone are enough to raise doubts over Ajaccio's price, but on top of that, Marseille have lost four of their last six games in all competitions, including their last three in a row without scoring a goal. There's a good chance they'll fade here as they put out their strongest available line-up at PSG in the League Cup on Wednesday (2-0 defeat) so their legs will be heavy towards the end. 

I'd back the draw at 3.3512/5 or Ajaccio with a small start on the Asian Handicap. With the second selection, you'll win if Ajaccio win or the game ends in a draw.

Lyon v Bastia (4th v 11th) Sun, 16:00 GMT

This is the weekend's strongest "Overs" selection.

Lyon's defensive problems have been well-documented over recent seasons. Partly those defensive difficulties are because they're an attacking side, but it's also because of the sheer lack of defensive quality across the back. The stats are strong: Les Gones have conceded in 39 of 47 league games since the start of last season.

Bastia are an entertainingly open side as well. Individually and collectively their defence is arguably Ligue 1's poorest but that's offset by the quality and variety of their attack, where playmaker Florian Thauvin, busy little winger Julian Palmieri and Toifilou Maoulida have all been excellent this season. As a result of Bastia's top-heavy approach nine of their 10 league games have had over 2.5 goals, with six featuring over 3.5 goals (over 3.5 goals is 2.747/4).

I'd consider both overs bets, or 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at 1.8810/11.

Bordeaux v Toulouse (8th v 2nd) Sun, 20:00 GMT

Bordeaux are worth opposing at the moment. After a bright start to the season their form has gradually worsened, to the point they've won just two of their last 11 matches in all competitions. The squad looks tired because a draining Europa League campaign is starting to take its toll, and their lack of motivation against Montpellier in midweek is only partly explained by the fact the League Cup is not a priority.

In these circumstances Bordeaux's 2.1211/10 price is too short against a Toulouse side that have proved Ligue 1's surprise package this season. They moved up to second after their 3-1 win over Brest last weekend, and their only defeat in 90 minutes in all competitions this season was against PSG, the division's strongest side by some way.

By laying Bordeaux you'll make money if Toulouse win or the game ends in a draw.

Best Bet
Lyon v Bastia over 2.5 goals @ 1.748/11
Other Recommended Bets
Lay Bordeaux at home to Toulouse @ 2.166/5
Ajaccio +0&+0.5 Asian Handicap v Marseille @ 2.1211/10
Nice to beat Nancy @ 2.0421/20

James Eastham has made 29.81pts profit from 377pts staked on Ligue 1 matches and outright markets since August 2008 (7.9% ROI). You can follow him on twitter: @james_eastham