Torneo Inicial Big Match Preview: Boca Juniors v San Lorenzo

Rolando Schiavi of Boca Juniors

Another big week for Boca Juniors as they host San Lorenzo. Ed Malyon previews the action

Boca Juniors v San Lorenzo
Saturday 3 November, 1910hrs

At 2-0 down and with just fifteen minutes to go, last Sunday looked to be going the worst possible way for Boca Juniors.

Their archivals River Plate were deliriously celebrating Rodrigo Mora's cute finish and mocking the silenced mass of blue and yellow when the visitors went straight down the other end and won a penalty to reduce the deficit.

Despite having been bettered throughout, Boca were in with a chance and it's one that they took in the first minute of stoppage time as Walter Erviti prodded past the onrushing goalkeeper and flipped Buenos Aires on its head.

And how better to follow up a Superclasico than to play another clasico? Boca welcome San Lorenzo to La Bombonera still basking in last weekend's action but awaiting another detested foe.

San Lorenzo are another of Argentina's five 'grandes' and are currently threatening to go the same way as Boca's most hated rivals did last summer in getting relegated to 'la B'.

Having only avoided relegation through the playoffs in June, San Lore made serious improvements to the playing squad but results have been poor and they continue to find themselves in the relegation zone of Argentina's average points table.

With the changes to the league system there is no longer the possibility of escape through a playoff this season, and just like fellow struggling grande Independiente, they know that if they can't climb out of the bottom three by June then they will suffer the ignominy of the drop.

You can expect Boca fans to jubilantly remind their visitors of this possibility all weekend, just as they have ensured River fans will never be able to forget their season in the second tier, but beyond the rivalry and off-the-pitch stuff there is an actual match to be played here.

As we've covered, el cicln are in relegation trouble, whereas this game will be fairly inconsequential for Boca as Newell's race away at the top of the table and beyond their realistic grasp. Thus, it will be San Lorenzo that will be more desperate for points, especially after the sucker-punch of an injury-time equaliser conceded last week against Quilmes.

Juan Antonio Pizzi came in a few weeks ago to replace controversial and struggling San Lorenzo manager Ricardo Caruso Lombardi and the Quilmes game looked like it would be his first win since taking over.

Having come from 1-0 down to lead 2-1, the Nuevo Gasometro was rocking with the hope of salvation until Mandarino nodded home from close range to steal a point from the Brewers.

Pizzi has certainly changed the playing style of his side, clearly influenced by his time at Barcelona in the way his charges are told to press high and regain possession near the opposing goal. One San Lorenzo player recently noted that since the change in management, they have been playing 30 yards further up the pitch - which is just what they needed with the strike force that they have.

Boca may have been overjoyed with their result on Sunday but at the end of the day it was a draw, and one that their play simply hadn't merited. The midfield is ponderous, ineffective and lacking in identity since Riquelme ceased playing, and Julio Csar Falcioni simply is showing too much faith in the underperforming players like Pochi Chavez.

Even their once powerful strikeforce struggled against a River defence that was ravaged by injuries and already suspect at best.

So, in a case of improving strugglers against creaking overachievers, where is the value?

Match odds

Boca are 1.865/6 favourites for this game, but the gamble here is whether San Lore will continue to improve under Pizzi, because their squad is so packed with quality that under a competent manager this is a game that is by no means out of their reach.

A midfield of Juan Mercier, Luis Aguiar and Julio Buffarini is more than a match for the hosts' softening core, but question marks remain over the defence and goalkeeper Pablo Migliore, despite his penalty save on the last matchday.

Goals

As far as outright stats go, Boca games average 2.67 goals each, with San Lorenzo's just 1.75. The 1.674/6 for under 2.5 goals seems a little short given how exposed the Xeneize defence looked against River and Franco Jara's pace and movement is not that different to that of Rodrigo Mora, who gave Boca centre-back Rolando Schiavi a torrid time last week.

In terms of goalscorers, San Lorenzo forward Denis Stracqualursi's reputation was largely built on a hat-trick at La Bombonera while with Tigre, and their new style will see him get more time in the penalty area - exactly where he does his best work.

Other bets

If you fancy Boca to edge this then its worth looking at the half-time stats to find some extra edge. San Lorenzo would be sixth, rather than eighteenth, had their games all finished at the break this year and backing the Draw/Boca on the HT/FT market looks decentish value at 4.8.

Otherwise, it looks like a case of backing San Lorenzo on the Asian Handicap as their price is simply too big, or going in-play and laying-to-back Boca Juniors.

Best bet: Lay Boca (to back in-play) at 1.865/6

Other bets: Draw/Boca at 4.84/1