суббота, 16 августа 2014 г.

Torneo TransiciГіn Tipsheet: Racing to stall their good start against San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo have had a successful week, and travel to Racing on Sunday

Argentine football is back for a second round of fixtures and now boasts the continental champions after San Lorenzo won the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday night, but can Racing Club bring them back to Earth with a bump? Ed Malyon decides...

Racing Club vs San Lorenzo - Sunday 19:15

Last week we said that with the squad they've got, Racing were way too long a price to beat Defensa y Justicia and they won with ease. But this weekend they face a somewhat tougher proposition.

Instead of visiting a newly-promoted side shorn of their top scorer, they find themselves up against the team crowned the best in South America in midweek. San Lorenzo won the second leg of the Copa Libertadores final 1-0 against Nacional on Wednesday to claim their first-ever victory in CONMEBOL's premier club competition. It has been a historic week for the club, with several days of celebration since, but they now must focus on the league and that begins on Sunday night at El Cilindro. 

Having been crowned a continental champion with San Lorenzo on Wednesday, left-back German Voboril made the move to Racing on Thursday but is not expected to start this weekend. Instead, Racing will likely make just one change, Gaston Campi coming in for the suspended Nicolas Sanchez. That means Diego Milito will continue up front with Gabriel Hauche in a front pairing that looked very impressive in the opening fixture. Milito has the pedigree to be the best player in the division if he can stay fit and his return to Argentine football went well in Florencio Varela last week.

The question with San Lorenzo is whether this Sunday will be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' or if we'll see a team on a high. Even if they're not on top form, their price 4.47/2 seems very long for one of the strongest line-ups in Argentina and a team full of confidence. They also have depth to change things up if any players were in need of a rest, with proven Primera performers like Nicolas Blandi and Pablo Barrientos waiting in the wings. 

Racing, as we've covered, have a promising side but often flatter to deceive. Being at home they are 2.0421/20 favourites, but last season took a paltry seven points in front of their own fans. With that sort of record they are impossible to back at such short prices, particularly against such strong opposition, and should thus be opposed. 

Recommended Bet
Lay Racing @ 2.0621/20

Atletico Rafaela vs Lans - Tuesday 00:30

The final game of the weekend sees near-perennial title challengers Lans travel to Rafaela. The visitors have managed to keep some sort of stability with Guillermo Barros Schelotto staying on as manager while his twin brother Gustavo remains as assistant. Their squad too has been kept largely in tact and a couple of returning loanees, Diego Braghieri and Silvio Romero, will even strengthen the team slightly with their proven performances at this level. 

Last weekend saw them kick off their campaign with a win over Belgrano in Zona Sur. It was an unspectacular 1-0 win but three valuable points for the Granate who are likely to find themselves in championship contention once again. 

Atletico Rafaela 3.55/2 on the other hand, probably won't. Mid-table last season, the Santa Fe have lost last year's top scorer Diego Vera and were pummelled by newly-promoted Independiente in their opening game. This may not necessarily be as bad as it sounds, after all, Independiente are one of Argentina's five traditional grandes and have bought very well over the off-season but it was still a big defeat.

And ostensibly Lans 2.265/4 are a better side than last week's opponents, which is why they're favourites for Monday's late-night clash. As an interesting aside, these two were the sides whose games averaged the most goals per game in last season's Torneo Final (2.63) so even though the hosts have switched manager the over 2.5 goals at 2.3811/8 is a tempting proposition.

Our focus though is on the match odds market, where we are backing Lans to get a result against a Rafaela side that have offered little to gain our support and should struggle with the visitors' quality.

Recommended Bet
Back Lans @ 2.265/4

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