ATP Western & Southern Open Betting: Trends suggest a fast finish for Murray or Federer in Cincy

Will Murray's win over Isner spur him on tonight?

Andy Murray and Roger Federer clash in Cincinnati tonight for the 22nd time and Sean Calvert expects it to be another quick affair...

This difficult fortnight of back-to-back Masters 1000s threatened to get a fair bit better on Thursday, but my hopes were soon dashed again on the hard courts of the Lindner Family Tennis Centre.

Stanislas Wawrinka started the day well - eventually - by coming through against Marin Cilic after a poor opening set to land my opening bet and see my outright through to the last eight.

And with a really out of sorts Novak Djokovic losing to Tommy Robredo, those on the 21.020/1 back to lay tip on Stan can now choose to lay if they want to at 5.59/2.

Yen Hsun Lu also looked good in taking the opener against Fabio Fognini, but faded badly after failing with nine of his 10 break point chances, including some mind-boggling misses into the bargain.

Then my other outright tip John Isner had a couple of match points against Andy Murray, but a netted volley and some inspired defence from Murray allowed him to sneak through instead.

That match could be just what the doctor ordered for Murray, who should take great heart from that win against Isner in these conditions and he certainly has a decent shot of beating Roger Federer tonight.

Murray has been virtually impossible to successfully predict this season, with some decent showings combined with some pretty poor stuff and he did seem to be holding his hip again yesterday.

Not that it ever means a great deal with the Scot when he does that and I would have to question his killer instinct at the moment after flopping against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week when in control and again to a certain extent yesterday.

I think the Isner match was more to do with the American playing some great tennis at the right times than any real lapse from Murray though and he came up with some sublime stuff when threatened with defeat.

Federer has struggled his way through two rounds here against Vasek Pospisil who faded badly in the decider and Gael Monfils, who didn't look like he could be bothered for much of last night's match.

Lamonf woke up in the third set of that one, by which time it was a little but late and Federer was able to ease through, but he should be tested more thoroughly today by Murray.

The career series between the pair has been rather peculiar, with many of the matches being one-sided, with one player being comfortably the better, and only really the 2013 Australian Open semi final was a tightly contested affair.

Deciding sets between the pair have been one-sided too, with the last nine all ending in 10 games or fewer and I'm tempted to go with the under total games here.

Neither player is at their best right now and the men's US Open looms wider open than ever, with question marks over all of the main contenders.

I don't think anyone could back either of these two with full confidence today and with their last seven best of three matches in a row ending in two sets stretching all the way back to 2009 the under 23.5 games looks the call.

Punters can't make their minds up on this one either, with Murray initially being favoured and this morning the money's come in for Federer and a better bet might be the correct score in set one, with 6-4 and 6-3 featuring very regularly in the opener of this match-up.

Before all of that, hopefully we'll have seen Wawrinka take care of Julien Benneteau after the Swiss found his game in the last two sets against Cilic, but this could be a banana skin match for Stan.

Benny has won the last two between the pair, but they were before Stan's elevation to the top table so to speak and it will be really disappointing if he doesn't find a way past the Frenchman today.

Recommended Bet
Back under 23.5 total games in Murray/Federer at 1.910/11

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 961.60