ATP Western & Southern Open Betting: Focus on tie breaks in Federer/Raonic battle

Milos Raonic can test Roger Federer in Cincy tonight

Roger Federer is in action on Saturday in Cincinnati at the Western and Southern Open and Sean Calvert is back to select the best betting options in the clash with Milos Raonic...

It was another up and down day in Cincy on Friday, with a little bit of fortune finally smiling on us - but not too much.

Andy Murray blew a 4-1 double break lead in the second set against Roger Federer to bring home my under 23.5 total games wager, which eased a bit of the pain of Stan Wawrinka's earlier performance.

I said yesterday that Julien Benneteau could be a potential banana skin of a match for Wawrinka, but I doubt anyone could have foreseen the scale of the surrender from Stan after breezing through set one.

My outright on Wawrinka went up in smoke when Stan went AWOL and after showing great form and good energy in the opener he totally lost the plot in one the strangest and weakest showings you will ever see from a grand slam champion.

Benny just kept the ball in play and allowed Stan to self-destruct and the apparent disinterest from the Swiss was alarming for anyone who's backed him for the US Open.

Murray was hardly a huge amount better, but he did what I needed him to and Federer goes forward to face Milos Raonic today in what is a really interesting betting heat.

Raonic defeated a very believable Fabio Fognini imposter yesterday, with the colourful Italian opting not to bother in an embarrassing 6-1, 6-0 loss in which Milos barely broke sweat.

That simple win might stand him in good stead for tonight's sixth go at beating Federer and the Canadian will surely be very much up for this with a Masters 1000 crown tantalisingly within reach.

It's going to be hot and humid in Cincy tonight and we'll see how much Roger has left in the tank after a tough fortnight here and in Toronto.

The head-to-head doesn't make for good reading for Raonic, with five losses to the Swiss maestro and only one set won that didn't involve a tie-break.

Federer disposed of Raonic pretty comfortably at Wimbledon, but in these conditions and with a lot of miles in those 33-year-old legs I can sniff a possible upset here.

The Swiss has won his last six straight sets against Raonic, but with the ball bouncing really high and the courts on the quick side the Canadian has more of a chance here than at the All England Club.

That's reflected in the prices though and I'm not sure Raonic should be as short as 2.915/8 for this when he was a 3.613/5 shot at Wimbledon and 9.08/1 the last time they met on a hard court in Melbourne last year.

Roger has a very good record against big servers, with a 76-20 record against the ones currently on my list and he'd won the last 12 straight before losing to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Toronto.

Murray served badly last night against Federer, with fewer than 50 percent of his first serves getting in play and that really allowed Federer to improve his less than great break of serve record.

Federer is down in 15th place on return games won in 2014 and in 26th place in break points converted this campaign and Raonic is, predictably, much worse in 39th spot in conversions and 59th place in games won on opponents' serves.

It would seem natural therefore to side with either the 'tie break played' market or the set one correct score market.

It's around 1.645/8 for there to be a tie break and you can get 6.05/1 on Federer 7-6 and 8.07/1 on Raonic 7-6 in set one and considering there's been a breaker in four of their five meetings the 'yes' option looks decent value.

In terms of tie breaks won Raonic has a stellar 23-9 record in 2014, while Fed is only 15-13, so the 8.07/1 about Raonic 7-6 in set one seems the one for a Cash Out punt.

Recommended Bet
Back 'yes' in tie break played at 1.645/8

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Raonic to win set one 7-6 at 8.07/1

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 970.60