ATP Western & Southern Open Betting: Motivated Lu looks value against mercurial Fognini

Will the hardworking Lu defeat flashy Fognini?

Andy Murray is back in action in Cincinnati on Thursday in the last-16, where Sean Calvert previews the days' action at the Western and Southern Open...

Things aren't really clicking at the moment in the build-up to the US Open, but at least most of the bad luck is coming out now before the big one.

John Isner won the second set 7-6 instead of the first yesterday, having enjoyed a dead net cord to break Marinko Matosevic in set one, but Roger Federer did win his opener 7-6 against Vasek Pospisil.

Roberto Bautista-Agut continued to drift in the betting and was beaten in straight sets by Gael Monfils, but these moves are sometimes far from accurate depictions of what will happen most of the time and I'd take the same bet on again in those circumstances.

Indeed, RBA didn't seem injured and it was just one of those rare days where Monfils produces the kind of magical tennis that makes you wonder why he's never really achieved much in the game.

The answer to that question will probably be highlighted again tonight when he faces Federer and you always take your chances with Lamonf.

Talking of unpredictable, enigmatic and downright infuriating talents that brings me to Fabio Fognini, who looks worth taking on with Yen Hsun Lu in their 6pm UK time match today.

I said yesterday that Tomas Berdych might well struggle against Lu and so it proved with the underdog beating the number four seed from a set down.

Fogna had an easy time of it against an injured Lleyton Hewitt and this could become one of those matches today where we see hard work triumph over flashy, but effortless talent.

This pair have met twice on the tour, with both matches ending in tight wins for one or the other, but Lu can make a seeding at the US Open with a win today and he should be sure to give it his all.

These Masters 1000s close to majors can be tricky affairs, as I've illustrated pretty well of late, and it's worth taking a chance on an opponent with something to play for other than match practice.

Lu is currently at 37 in the live rankings and a win today would probably put him at 31 and with a few of the players above him likely to withdraw he should be seeded if he wins today.

Andy Murray faces one of my outright tips Isner in the heat of the day at 1pm local time (6pm UK) and this should be tough for the Brit with Isner firing on all cylinders and looking determined right now.

His serve gets up so high in these conditions that Matosevic was trying to take it by his head and the courts are tight here in Cincy, so there's not much room to stand back and take them.

Murray is hard to back for or against at the moment, but if I weren't on Isner outright the 2.95n/a is a tempting proposition on the big man today.

I will load up on my other outright selection of Stan Wawrinka though, as I though he'd be a fair bit shorter to get past Marin Cilic today.

Stan has been in and out all season since Melbourne when he landed the outright winner of the year for me, but he has a good record here and a dominant one over this opponent, with 1.774/5 appearing generous.

I expected to see about 1.51/2 or shorter on Wawrinka today with his 6-2 career lead over Cilic and the latter not impressing so far this hard court swing.

Stan needs matches after an early loss last week and although he's not been in great form lately either he looks too big to beat an opponent who seems a great match up for him that he beat 6-0, 6-2 last time.

Recommended Bets
Back Lu to beat Fognini at 2.245/4
Back Wawrinka to beat Cilic at 1.774/5

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1 and visit his 2013/14 profit and loss page here

Tennis profit and loss – 2014 season

Profit based on 10 stake per bet = + 963.90