World Cup Draw: Look to Groups E-H for your tournament winner bets

Argentina have an easy path to the latter stages

The top half of the World Cup draw looks top-loaded with quality teams and Joe Dyer suggests focusing on the bottom half to get a better run for your money at Brazil 2014...

The World Cup is just a few days off now and while more than 10.6m has already been matched in Betfair's winner market there'll be plenty more money arriving before kick-off on June 12. If you haven't yet, doubtless you'll be thinking of deploying a few quid soon.

But before wading in, whether it be on one of the leading teams or another at bigger odds, it's well worth studying the draw to predict a path to the final. 

Group A's Brazil (4.216/5 to win the World Cup), Group F's Argentina (5.39/2), Group C's Spain (7.613/2), and Group G's Germany (7.87/1) have occupied the top of the betting for many months now and all have perfectly valid claims.

But with teams from Groups A-D and E-H only playing against each other for the first two knockout rounds there's the potential for some tough early fixtures (click here for the full groups).

The ones that particularly catch the eye are the last-16 clashes between Groups A and B, Brazil and Spain being the respective favourites there. The last-16 phase pits group winners against second-placed so one stumble from either of the big names and we'll have a fixture between the reigning world champions and the hosts in the first round of knockout matches. Ouch. 

And, even if the tournament follows the formbook, Big Phil Scolari's team will still face the Netherlands or Chile in the second round.

As stated, the first round of knockout fixtures pairs groups in alphabetical order with the winners taking on the runners-up, so it's Group A v B, C v D, E v F, G v H. After that, the sequence changes a touch with the fixtures potentially pairing the winners of groups A and C, B and D, E and G, F and H. Of course, there are always upsets and it's hugely unlikely that all the favourites will make it through their various ties, but if we were to have a predictable tournament then the quarter finals could look like this.

Brazil v Uruguay (or Colombia)
Spain v Italy
France v Germany
Argentina v Portugal (or Belgium)

Teams from Groups A-D only meet those from E-H at the semi-final stage so, assuming the quarter final matches went to the favourites, the two semi-finals would pit Brazil against Germany, with Argentina and Spain meeting in the other fixture.

What struck me when plotting the various routes to the final was how much easier it looks for teams in Groups E to H - a section that contains just five of the 13 teams who trade at 50.049/1 or less on Betfair (Argentina, Germany, Belgium, France and Portugal) and could therefore be said to entertain a realistic chance of winning.

Of those teams, Argentina are favoured in particular. The Albiceleste could potentially face Switzerland before meeting either Portugal or Belgium on their way to the semis. Tough, but winnable. No wonder they have been gently backed in to clear second favouritism in the winner market.

Germany's path to the semis could incorporate Russia then France.

In the other half Brazil should face Holland or Chile, then Uruguay, Italy or even England, while Spain will likely meet Croatia or Mexico before meeting one of Group D's finest, with Cesare Prandelli's side probably lining up in opposition. 

Putting all this together - and always bearing in mind the likelihood of unexpected teams making the knockout stages - Brazil will have to be on top form to make the semis, let alone the final.

That tough run, coupled with the pressure of expectation, might just be enough to derail the home challenge and I'd far rather chance my money on Argentina lifting the trophy.