World Cup Betting: Don't bank on Brazil to make a fast start

Luiz Felipe Scolari - plenty to think about

Brazil, in Brazil, is a dream World Cup for the host nation's players. But Ralph Ellis has seen signs that it could just as easily become a nightmare...

Listen to Chelsea's Brazilian playmaker Oscar talking, and you'd wonder why any other country would bother to turn up when the World Cup starts this week.

He's looking forward (as we all are) to this Thursday evening, the start of the biggest competition on the planet. "I don't know who is going to be more excited, the players or the fans," he tells Tom Watt in a new book that dips into his background. "Everyone will be together, feeling the same. Big emotions, excitement, euphoria, pride - and, we hope, joy."

Cross that wave of excitement with the undoubted talent and brilliance of the host nation's footballers, throw in the effect of a manager who has guided them to a World Cup before, and you'd understand why Brazil are 1.341/3 to beat Croatiaand set the tone for the tournament. In fact you'd find it hard to understand that the hosts, while favourites, are as long as 4.216/5 to be the tournament winners.

The wave of excitement rolling around the world's fifth largest country by both area and population is huge. But there's a darker side to that. Any big wave has an undertow, and Luiz Felipe Scolari and his players are already finding out the dangers.

If, like me, you tuned into Brazil's final friendly against Serbia on Friday night you'd have seen all too clearly that there's another side to that excitement and euphoria. It's called pressure, and heaven forbid if Scolari's team don't deliver the goods.

I'd hoped to get a glimpse of the host nation's exhilarating football, hoped to have my appetite whetted. Instead Brazil knocked the ball around with no pace as Serbia packed their defence. And Oscar, far from his hopes of sharing joy, struggled desperately for 45 minutes before he was hauled off at half time.

He and the rest of Brazil's team were loudly booed off at the interval, and the atmosphere or performance didn't get a lot better before Fred finally changed the mood a bit with the second half winning goal.

Since then there has been a debate raging about whether Oscar should start the game at all. Scolari, who has spent 18 months cementing what he feels should be his starting team, is facing increasing criticism for his refusal to adapt his plans. With high hopes come huge worries if it all goes wrong, and we'll find out on Thursday if Brazil can handle that weight of expectation.

Only four of the last nine World Cup hosts have won their opening game, even though they may have later punched above their weight. Croatia are sure to defend in numbers just like the Serbs, and be just as difficult to break down. But they also have some talents like Luka Modric who could cause danger on the break. It's the perfect recipe for a lay-to-back bet, and if Brazil get booed off again at half time then you'll be the one cheering!

Of course Brazil did come together perfectly well a year ago to win the Confederations Cup, and have used that as evidence that they can deal with the demands of playing in front of their own fans and a TV audience of millions. But there was nothing like the same pressure then. This is the real thing. The Brazilian nation are willing to put aside their anger over economic and political issues, but only if their reward for doing so is to be World Cup winners. Otherwise, as we saw on Friday, the togetherness could disappear all too quickly.