World Cup 2014: Spotlight on the Outright Winner market

Lionel Messi will be key for Argentina

Betfair's Exchange seems to think that four countries stand apart in the betting to lift the famous World Cup trophy. Luke Moore takes a look at their chances...

Brazil
Odds: 4.216/5
First game: Croatia, Thursday June 12, 21:00

There has been a strong sense of destiny around Brazil in the lead up to this summer's festivities, as the Seleo look to not only unite the country amid serious political unrest but also avenge the crushing defeat in the 1950 World Cup final to Uruguay in the Maracana.

Luis Felipe Scolari has a settled side, one which he decided upon a long time ago and has also refused to change in any meaningful way despite calls to do so from local media and some sections of the Brazil support. The pressure upon his charges will be almost suffocating, but with the right frame of mind there is absolutely no reason they can't go all the way to Rio on July 13.

A potential flashpoint for them could be a tough second round game against either Spain, Netherlands or the underrated Chil, but if they can navigate that they should be there or thereabouts.

Brazil are short-priced favourites for a reason - home advantage, a wealth of quality players all plying their trade in top leagues around the world and a rich history in this tournament. This group is hungry to win; none of them have lifted football's biggest trophy before, and that could be key.

Argentina
Odds: 5.39/2
First game: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sunday June 15, 23:00

At first glance, Argentina are best-placed to take advantage should Brazil buckle under the pressure of a home tournament. Alejandro Sabella's men qualified well, have a decent draw and an embarrassment of riches going forward, and it is very easy to see them going deep in this competition. 

Question marks remain over their rearguard however, with the squad Sabella has picked looking more than a little top heavy (they didn't manage to keep a single clean sheet away from home in qualifying) and goalkeeper Sergio Romero hardly featuring for Monaco this season. But Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria shouldn't pose too much of a problem in the group stage and I wonder if too much has been made of their apparent weakness in defence - Martin Demichelis had his detractors this season but finished strongly and lifted the Premier League title, Ezequiel Garay was largely excellent in the Europa League for Benfica especially in the final against Sevilla, and Pablo Zabaleta is a top quality right back.

Their path beyond that looks likely to be either Switzerland or France in the second round and then Belgium or Portugal in the quarter final, none of which will hold too much fear should they be able to keep feeding their front men and for all these reasons the Albiceleste must rate as a good bet. What's more, if Lionel Messi (who has been greatly improved at international level this past 18 months) can take the tournament by the scruff of the neck, there could be no stopping them.

5.39/2 is perhaps a little skinny in such a big tournament, but that aside they're the pick of the four favourites.

Spain
Odds: 7.613/2
First game: Netherlands, Friday June 13, 20:00

Spain's recent record at major tournaments speaks for itself and their squad is easily one of the strongest in world football. This exciting young group of players we saw at Euro 2008 has now matured into an experienced, talented spine peppered with yet more prospects and young, hungry operators desperate to emulate their country's former success.

Qualifying well in a potentially tricky group, they have been handed a pretty tricky group (Netherlands and more importantly Chil are no pushovers) but there is no sense that Spain will trip up as holders a la Italy last time around and if you were going to back a European side to be the first to lift the trophy in South America you could do worse than plumping for the Spanish.

Questions include whether the metronomic Xavi can keep up his phenomenal passing rate at 34 and the form of Iker Casillas, as well as a potential lack of goals up front - Fernando Torres is a shadow of the player he once was and can consider himself lucky to be picked, David Villa hasn't been first choice at Atletico Madrid and is on his way to New York City FC, and Diego Costa is essentially untried in international football.

These are probably minor quibbles though and Spain will almost certainly have their say this summer. It's important they start well though; Netherlands have the quality to hurt them, and losing the opening game of your World Cup can be disastrous.

Germany
Odds: 7.87/1
First Game: Portugal, Monday June 16, 17:00

Semi-finalists last time out and for the two tournaments before that, Germany are still looking for their first major tournament win since 1996. 

Possessing a side of exceptional balance and fluidity, Jogi Lw has only selected one true striker in the shape of Miroslav Klose and will be relying on goals from some of the seven attacking midfield players in his squad. The injury to Marco Reus was a blow, but there is a feeling in the camp that the squad can absorb such a setback given the other wealth of options in that position within their ranks. 

The Germans have a eminently winnable group and a decent draw in the second round and so can be fancied to go pretty deep in the competition, provided they can get off to a flying start in their opening game - the trickiest of their group stage ties. 

As for negatives, the jury is probably still out on Marcel Schmelzer at left back and holding midfield remains a concern given the the fitness of Sami Khedira and the drop off in form of Bastian Schweinsteiger. The latter was found wanting in the closing stages of the Champions League, especially against Real Madrid. 

Recommended Bet

Back Argentina to win the World Cup at 5.39/2