суббота, 21 июня 2014 г.

World Cup 2014: Our man in Brazil on why the hosts are feeling the heat

Will Scolari make drastic changes to his team?

Ed Malyon reports from Brazil and assesses the hosts' chances of going on to win the World Cup. Do they need to change their system? And who will provide the firepower up front?

No team has ever come into a competition under as much pressure to win as Brazil this summer. Quite simply, they must win the World Cup or their tournament will have been a failure and after their opening couple of games that disastrous scenario is looking ever more likely.

While the atmosphere at both games has been superb in supporting the hosts, their performances haven't lived up to expectations with several issues threatening to derail their campaign. That's not to say that they won't still win the group, which still seems nigh-on certain, but that their odds have drifted from a low of 3.814/5 to 4.94/1 speaks volumes about their unconvincing displays.

Against Croatia in the opener they needed a decisive intervention from referee Yuichi Nishimura to gift them a win that they struggled to merit. The Brazilian full-backs, Dani Alves in particular, were exposed as the Croats doubled up down the flanks, attacking directly and into space. This dragged Thiago Silva and David Luiz into the channels and left Brazil exposed, something that will likely be punished against better opposition.

The solution that Luiz Felipe Scolari has always found to compensate for his marauding full-backs has been dropping Luiz Gustavo in as an auxiliary centre-half, but against Mexico in Fortaleza that revealed its own problem. With the attacking trio in his 4-2-3-1 not offering much defensively and Luiz Gustavo dropping to join the defensive line, it has left Paulinho to patrol a huge area in the centre of the park.

As an example, on Tuesday night as Ramires lost the ball trying to complete a one-two on the right, Miguel Layn switched the ball and with one pass the Mexicans were left with a 4-v-1 in the middle. While the Tricolor perhaps lacked the confidence (or ability) to take full advantage of situations like that, there are several teams who will be waiting in the knockout phase that would profit hugely from such a vacuum in midfield.

The solution for Scolari could be to tilt his triangle and slot Ramires, Fernandinho or Hernanes into a three-man midfield as he did in the 3-1 friendly win over Italy, affording more cover centrally while retaining Luiz Gustavo's role that frees the full-backs. But if there is one thing the Brazil boss has proved to be over the years (as well as successful) it is stubborn and you fear he wouldn't be open to changing system mid-competition.

While perhaps the most obvious problem for the Selecao is up front, where Fred has shown very little in his two starts this tournament to suggest he can stay onside, let alone get in position to score a goal. Yet with Scolari's insistence on playing a classic centre-forward - rather than returning to predecessor Mano Menezes' system that used Neymar as a false nine - the only likely change would be to bring in Jo, a far better player than we saw in the Premier League but still not a top-class striker.

Defensive concerns, a midfield vacuum and your lone frontman misfiring do not a World Cup winner make, but Brazil have a final group game with hapless Cameroon to make it right. A confidence-boosting win in Brasilia on Monday could make everything finally click and begin some momentum which will be sorely needed for the knockout stages where confident and energetic Chilean or Dutch opposition will be waiting.

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