World Cup 2014: How to win money betting on the Betfair markets

The draw can play a pivotal part in how the markets shape up

Football trader and regular Betting.Betfair columnist Alan Thompson tells us which of the many side markets at this summer's World Cup he is most interested in and why, as well as explaining how he intends to trade them...

Group Stage Shocks

With each nation playing just three games on neutral ground, and then a knock-out style traditional cup competition, the World Cup gives the weaker nations a great opportunity to cause an upset compared to the longer style format of the Champions League or any of the top-flight leagues around the world, where the cream will ultimately rise to the top.

We have seen these upsets many times before in previous World Cups; France finished bottom of their group in 2002 four years after winning the tournament in their homeland. Les Bleus couldn't even manage a goal in a group that contained Denmark, Senegal and Uruguay.

France again propped up a group in 2010, the same World Cup that Italy - who had triumphed in Germany in 2006 - failed to win a game, finishing bottom of their group that consisted of Paraguay, Slovakia and New Zealand!

So evidence from previous World Cups suggests that there will be upsets in qualification from the group stages, which then has a dramatic affect on the next stage as nations who were expected to have won or finished second in their group may now be facing a 'shock qualifier' they are expected to beat - making their odds in the overall Winner market tumble.

Of course the format of the competition (using seeding) ensures that the majority of the talented nations will make it to the knock-out stages, but the short group format will provide some shocks and opportunities to secure nice positions in the Winner market.

The importance of home advantage / continent advantage

There has been much written about the fact that when a World Cup is held in North or South America, no European team has been able to win. The following table tends to back up that belief;

However, if we add another column to that table we can see that a European country has made the final in every tournament since 1950, suggesting that the dominance of the South Americans may not be as strong as the stat suggests;

There are many reasons to suggest that this time around a European winner could happen.

During the first World Cup in 1930 there were only four European nations in the 13 team tournament. This was mainly down to travel, European teams would have had to endure many weeks of sea travel to get to the tournament and this would also have been relevant at the 1950 World Cup where again only 13 teams were involved (six from Europe).

As travel improved and players started to move and play outside of their own country, has the home nation and home continent advantage been reduced?

Since the 1978 World Cup in Argentina the host country has won only one (France 1998) of the eight tournaments held (12.5%). Prior to 1978 five of the 11 tournaments were won by the host nation (45%).

There are many factors that will contribute to this, but ultimately home nation or home continent advantage is certainly not what it used to be.

There is a market on Betfair for Winning Confederation and at the time of writing both UEFA and CONMEBOL are sharing favouritism at around the 2.0621/20 mark.

However, in the World Cup Winner market the two favourites for the competition are Brazil at 4.1n/a and Argentina at 5.95/1 so if you don't see a CONMEBOL nation outside of these two then dutching Brazil and Argentina will give you an approximate return of 2.47/5.

Likewise, if you think a UEFA winner is possible and you can eliminate some of the lesser nations from this confederation then you can generate a much higher return by dutching.

For example if you think the UEFA winner will come from Spain 7.613/2, Germany 7.613/2, Belgium 23.022/1, Italy 29.028/1 or the Netherlands 38.037/1 then you will be paid out at odds of aruond 2.47/5 rather than evens in the Winning Confederation market to cover ALL UEFA teams.

How important is that first game, in such a short format group?

Looking back at the opening group games since France 98 (64 games) there have been 45 nations defeated in these fixtures and as the table below shows only four of these teams have recovered to qualify for the knock-out stages;

Based on the last four tournaments, suffering a defeat in the opening game offers only an 8.89% chance of qualifying from the group. In odds terms it's approximately 11.25n/a.

The teams that have managed to escape the group either lost to group winners or in Spain's case topped the group themselves and won the tournament.

Turkey (2002): Lost 2-1 to an 87th minute Brazil winner, Brazil won the group. Turkey were eliminated in the semi finals, Brazil again proving too good for them in the semi-final where they were beaten 1-0. Brazil won the tournament.

Ghana (2006): Lost to undefeated group winners Italy 2-0.

Ukraine (2006): Lost to undefeated group winners Spain (in a weak group including Saudi Arabia & Tunisia).

Spain (2010): Lost to Switzerland 1-0 but went on to win the group on goal difference and lift the trophy.

I will be taking a close look at the group To Qualify markets after the initial round of games during this tournament.

Other Markets

There are a host of other markets available on Betfair but other popular ones will revolve around goals. Top Goalscorer is always popular and I am very interested in the Total Tournament Goals, which could be interesting this time around.

Top Goalscorer

One of the most important factors in trying to find the winner of this market is the draw! Being drawn in a group that has a perceived weaker nation is an ideal opportunity for the goalscorers to get a head start in this market.

Since 1986 the winner of this market has scored the majority of their goals in the group stages but tournament progression is also a key feature - six of the last eight Golden Boot winners have played seven games.

It is worth keeping penalty takers on side in this market also, players like Sergio Aguero are being tipped for this market but I would dismiss him purely on the fact that he hasn't scored a penalty for Argentina in regular time.

Reaching the third place play-off game is more important in this market than reaching the final. The thought process is that as there is nothing at risk in this game, the Golden Boot could be the only real motivation. Over the last seven World Cups this game has produced an average of 4.28 goals whereas the final has averaged only two.

You are looking for a player to get you about six goals to have a chance in this market - albeit in 2006 Miroslav Klose win it with five goals scored and the same was true in 2010 when Thomas Muller, David Villa, and Wesley Sneijder shared the honours.

Total Tournament Goals

It is interesting that the Golden Boot has been won with five goals in the last two tournaments as the trend for total goals in the tournament is on the decrease (please note these figures are for 63 games per tournament - I do not include the 3/4th place play-off).

The market favourite at the time of writing is 165 goals or more at 3.259/4. - this is more goals than we have seen in each of the last three tournaments (even adding the 4.28 average for 3/4th place games). We are led to believe that we will be witnessing a carnival, beautiful game, goal-filled competition in Brazil but I am happy to take on that 3.259/4 for 165 goals or more.

This price might even shorten further after the group stages which over the last four tournaments is when the average goals per game is at its highest. If it does indeed shorten then I will be going in again!