World Cup 2014: Five reasons to back England to qualify at 8/1

Reasons to be cheerful?

The airwaves are full of the usual recriminations - 'no passion', 'root and branch review', 'sack the manager' - but England are not out of the World Cup just yet. Dan Thomas investigates if there is any value in backing Hodgson's men for an unlikely passage into the last 16... 

Well, that didn't go very well did it? All the positivity generated by the performance against Italy evaporated amid not only the poor passing and lack of ideas we have come to expect from England in recent years, but also the abject defending.

But while even Roy Hodgson has admitted England's "chances of going through are unbelievably slim" they remain in mathematical contention, trading at 9.08/1 to qualify (some, erm, 'patriotic' bookies in the high street have it as low as 5/1). That might just offer a touch of value. Here's why.

1) England simply need the favourites in each game to live up to their billing

England will qualify if Italy beat both Costa Rica and Uruguay and Hodgson's men beat the Central Americans (by two goals if Los Ticos only lose by one to Italy). 

It might sound difficult but, as Michael Lintorn notes in his 11am Bulletin today, this isn't a combination that requires any outlandish results.

Italy are 1.564/7 to beat Costa Rica tonight and currently trade as 2.77/4 favourites to beat Uruguay on Tuesday, while England are 1.654/6 to pick up the three points in their final game. A treble on those pays out at around 6.7n/a so that 9.08/1 begins to look pretty decent doesn't it?

2) Luis Suarez won't play that well again against Italy

While England were disappointing on the night, few will argue that two-goal Luis Suarez was the difference between the sides. The Liverpool man showed little sign of his injury as he tormented the England backline, scoring two excellent goals. But as any professional sportsman will tell you, the first game back from a serious injury is always the easiest as adrenaline helps you through. The next game is much harder. Add that to the extra motivation Suarez had to play against England due to some perceived mistreatment and you can't see him having the same impact against Italy.

3) Wayne Rooney looked back to something like his best against Uruguay

Without wishing to add too much to the acres of column inches over Rooney's best position, safe to say the Manchester United man looked far more comfortable in the middle and was a constant threat, scoring his first World Cup goal and going close on three other occasions, as well as prompting well from deep positions. If Daniel Sturridge can be convinced to actually stay up front, Rooney in this form should create plenty of chances against Costa Rica.

4) They can't defend that badly again - can they?

Both of Uruguay's goals - while excellent from an attacking perspective - were absolute horror shows from an England point of view, with the defending from the centre-backs on the winner beyond dreadful. Pretty sure page one of the centre-back manual says 'drop back and mark the centre-forward when the ball is played long'. But Gary Cahill and Phil Jagielka are both experienced operators - if not at this level - and they will surely improve against Costa Rica.

5) England have not been knocked out at the group stages since 1958

The current squad has already suffered the ignominy of being the first England team to lose their opening two group games at a World Cup - they will be fighting hard to ensure they don't become the first to go home at this stage for 56 years. They can take inspiration from Italy in 1982 - the Azzurri only managed three points in the group stage, but went on to win it...

As Sturridge says: "It ain't over till it's over."

The first leg of the journey is at 17:00 as Italy take on Costa Rica. Dave Farrar previews the game.