четверг, 5 июня 2014 г.

World Cup 2014: Best bets from the Betfair Market Operations team

Fred: Potential Golden Boot winner? Fred: Potential Golden Boot winner?

With the big kick-off in Brazil now just over a week away, we asked Betfair's football Market Operations team - who manage the Exchange on a day-to-day basis and know the prices inside out - for their best bets...

Back Argentina/Colombia - Group Winner Double at 2.29n/a

Argentina should breeze their group - as their price of 1.261/4 suggests -  and Colombia are clear favourites to top theirs at 2.01/1, despite Radamel Falcao being ruled out. Expect the two South America sides to reach the knockout stage relatively comfortably.

Back '1st Spain/2nd Chile' in Group B Straight Forecast market at 4.03/1

The Netherlands have some decent players but their defence is shocking and against the attacking nature of the Spaniards and Chileans, they may find the group tough going.

Back Sergio Aguero to win the Golden Boot at 16.5n/a

On paper Argentina have the easiest group and there should be plenty of opportunity for goals. If Messi plays deep then Aguero is likely to benefit from his service.

Back Fred to win the Golden Boot at 23.022/1

Brazil are the favourites and Fred is likely to start every game as a lone striker. 23.022/1 seems a very big price with that in mind.

Please see below for an explanation on the difference between 'Golden Boot' and 'Top Goalscorer' markets.

Lay UEFA to be the Winning Confederation at 2.0811/10

A European team has never won the World Cup when it has been played in South America and at a price of around 2.0811/10 to lay, it seems there could be some value in this selection.

Back-to-lay France in the Outright Winner market at 28.027/1

Easy group for France (editor: not sure we agree - Switzerland very popular in B.B Towers) and they will probably facing Bosnia in the knock out phase. Look to trade before quarter-final stage.

Back-to-lay Bosnia at 230.0229/1

Obviously the chances of them winning the whole thing are pretty much zero, but group rivals Iran aren't exactly known for their high quality football while Nigeria have a tendency to bottle it on these big stages. At this price a view to trade after the group stage may be a way to lock in some profit. Alternatively 1.834/5 for Dzeko and co to qualify from the group looks fair.

Back the draw in England v Italy at 3.052/1

England are boring, Italy are boring, it will be really hot, neither team will want to lose, Italy drew 0-0 with Ireland, James Milner will probably start, Wayne Rooney has forgotten what to do; the list goes on. For those who are brave, 0-0 correct score at 7.06/1 may be a good shout.

Market rules

Betfair's Golden Boot market will be settled on the player who scores the most goals throughout the tournament but should there be two or more players scoring the most goals then the winner will be the player deemed to have made the most assists. If players are still equal after goals and assists then the total number of minutes on the pitch will be decisive.

Betfair's separate Top Goalscorer market will be settled on the player who scores the most goals throughout the tournament. Should there be two or more players scoring the most goals then dead-head rules apply.

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