Seven NBA Finals answers from our senior NBA trader

Seven NBA Finals answers from our senior NBA trader

By Pinnacle Sports Jun 4, 2014

Tweet

Ahead of the 2014 NBA finals We asked our senior NBA trader (SNT) seven questions we thought bettors would want answered in order to give our readers the best possible insight ahead of the series.

Question: What should bettors know about the Heat?

SNT: The Heat rarely lose back-to-back games – after losing they have won the next game in their last ten games – with most of those spread wins as well.  Against the Spurs in last year’s finals, they came back big off each of the first two losses of the series, but were lucky to win at all in the memorable Game 6 in Miami.

I should also mention that Dwayne Wade appears much healthier than last year, partially thanks to sitting out for 28 regular season games.

Question: What should bettors know about the Spurs?

SNT: The Spurs are on a record home playoff roll, having won seven straight by 15 points or more at the AT&T Center – beating their rivals by an average of 24 points per game during this run which began by beating Dallas 119-96 in Game 7 of the first round.

They then went 2-1 at home vs. the Heat last Finals, with wins by 26 and 10, both of those coming off a loss. The other time they came off a loss in the series was Game 7, where they barely lost to the spread in the final minute.

Question: The Spurs’ depth has been talked about at length this offseason. Can it make the difference for potentially weary legs on their older starters?

SNT: The Spurs depth was pretty good last year, but has been better this season.  Belinelli played well for much of the regular season, but has faded quite a bit lately…he still represents a serious 3-point threat.

Patty Mills is more integrated into Pop’s system this year. Splitter has raised his game a bit – just ask Lamarcus Aldridge – and Boris Diaw rotates very well with him, depending on minutes and match-ups.

In the Pacers, the Heat just took down a team with a very thin bench and the contrast is worth noting, despite the fact that there is pretty good rest between Finals’ games.  Every additional year matters to older athletes, but Duncan and Ginobli seem quite fit.  Tony Parker, on the other hand, was nursing a hamstring issue earlier in the playoffs and now has an ankle strain.

Question: What did the regular season meetings between the Heat and Spurs indicate about this series? Should bettors take that as face value?

SNT: These teams split their two regular season games, each winning easily on their home court. In late January, Miami won theirs by 12, but were up 20 entering the 4th and expanded that lead before a late window-dressing flurry made the game look respectable.

Splitter and Green missed that one for San Antonio. In early March, the Spurs paid the Heat back with a 24-pt victory. The game was close after three quarters, but the Spurs pulled out to a comfortable lead soon enough in the fourth.

Everyone was fit for both teams. The Spurs came in winning 7 of 8 and were early in what would prove to be a 19 game win streak, whereas the Heat were off a loss and would go on to lose 4 of 5 (their worst stretch of the year other than a late April run with two indifferent efforts at the very end), including this one in San Antonio. The games basically cancel each other out.

Question: How high do you see limits going in this series?

SNT: The limits for the spreads will be at 50K early morning day of games unless there is a key injury we’re waiting to be resolved.  At times you might see a 100K limit, depending on the action.  The money lines will go to 20K at the same time as 50K spreads and sometimes go to 30K.  Totals will go to 20K by late morning day of game and often 30K for at least the final hour.

Question: What is one key match-up that pundits aren’t giving enough attention?

SNT: Pundits for the Finals, especially one so well-prepped as this one, analyze everything too much. It’s their job and they have a lot of time to do it thoroughly, if not always drawing novel conclusions.

The improvement of Splitter and the current confidence of Diaw are important features the Spurs can leverage against the Heat, and though you’ll hear that spoken of, it actually could prove to be the difference-maker. It’s unlikely Danny Green will be open enough often enough to have a chance to kill the Heat this time around, but other role players are always ready in Pop’s system.

If it appears I have an opinion or am trying to steer folks toward the Spurs…I really don’t have an opinion going into this.  It could be as simple as the home court edge being the difference-maker.  It could be that between having the best player in the game and a little of that magic dust Jordan’s Bulls sometimes seemed to have, especially in their later championship years…the Heat will get their three-peat.

Many games may be routs, the way four games of last year’s Finals played out and the way most of the Spurs’ games have gone lately…but in the end, it rates to be just as close a series games-wise, as advertised.

Click here for the latest NBA Championship Final odds.

If you have feedback, comments or questions regarding this article, please email the author or send us a tweet on Twitter.