Italy v Uruguay: Battle-hardened Italy to get the job done

Italy coach Cesare Prandelli is mulling over a change in formation

Costa Rica's shock progress means only one of Italy or Uruguay can make the last 16. Dave Farrar believes the Azzurri will come out on top...

Italy v Uruguay
Tuesday June 23, 17:00
Live on ITV 4

Match Odds: Italy 2.829/5, Uruguay 2.829/5, the draw 3.412/5

This has to be a battle between two of the hardest to read teams at this tournament. Uruguay showed how reliant they are on Luis Suarez when they flopped against Costa Rica and then got over the line against England, while Italy were outstanding against England in their opening game, and then lost control and focus against Costa Rica.

If you're prepared to forgive Italy, and I think that I am, then they look a decent price to beat Uruguay. They'll defend better against Suarez than England did, and with Edinson Cavani failing to perform so far, it really does look a case so far of "stop Suarez, stop Uruguay." And Italy can stop him, particularly as Cesare Prandelli looks certain to revert to my preferred system. The one that features the three Juventus centre backs, the one that has served them so well.

The other good news is that Mattia De Sciglio is available again, and that will bring balance and quality, and allow Italy to play a proper left-back.

The downside in supporting Italy to win is that they only need a draw, and if the scores are level with 20 minutes to go, then there'll only be one team trying to win. I just feel like Uruguay were flattered by their victory against England: England were dreadful, and one Uruguayan player performed spectacularly. This could well be something else entirely, and I expect Italy to show more control, a little more verve, and win a low scoring game, possibly by a goal or two to nil.

To Score

Having got Marchisio right, and then Candreva wrong, I'm keen to have a closer look at Italy's right back, Matteo Darmian. Uruguay looked all at sea down their left side against England (it was no surprise that the goal came from there) and Darmian has been outstanding at this tournament.

He could well be rewarded for his buccaneering runs, and with three centre-halves in the team, he'll have more licence than ever to get forward. He isn't a prolific goalscorer, but he will get into good positions, and despite only scoring two goals in his senior career so far, I think that he's overpriced as an anytime goalscorer. There'll be times when he's effectively playing as a right winger, and as someone who is a very adept centre half, he also provides a threat from corners.

Corners Odds

Talking of corner kicks, Italy won only four against Costa Rica, and two against England, but now that they look like changing to a 3-5-2, they will offer plenty more width. With Uruguay's style meaning that they always seem to get into wide areas, and with Italy's habit of last ditch challenges at the near post in particular (it led to 9 England corners and 5 for Costa Rica) I think that backing 13 corners or more may well be worth a look here. I don't think that there'll be hatfuls of goals, but two solid defences could be tested a little more than they'd like.

In Italy's last 10 competitions, their second-game syndrome (the one that I talked about last time but chose to ignore) means that they have only once secured qualification before the final Group game. On only two of those occasions, though, have they failed to qualify.

It proves that they are the masters of getting things done, even when the world seems to be against them. There are many good reasons to support them here: an excellent coach, a team finally playing the right formation, and some fresh faces like Ciro Immobile. But more than any of that, a habit of winning and doing what they need to do.

Recommended Bets

Back Italy to win @ 2.829/5
Back Matteo Darmian To score @ 20.019/1
Back 13 Corners or more @ 2.8415/8

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 14

Points Returned: 16.62

P/L: +2.62 points