How will weather conditions & travel affect teams in Brazil?

How will weather conditions & travel affect teams in Brazil?

By Michael Gales Jun 3, 2014

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To make a World Cup betting profit bettors should understand the nature and variety of playing conditions and travel demands teams will face in the world’s fifth largest country. Knowing which teams are favourably or adversely affected could provide an important edge.

Inhumane conditions due to early kick off times

Every World Cup tournament comes with its own set of unique conditions and characteristics that produce performance bias.  These range from the design of the football – in 2002, the Fevernova ball was blamed – the referee, the pitch, the noise of vuvuzela (in 2010) and more often than not, the weather. In Brazil – more than any other World Cup since USA 1994 – the weather could have serious implications on the outcome of games, and tournament fatigue.

Despite the previous four South American World Cups – Uruguay (1930), Brazil (1950), Chile (1962) and Argentina (1978) – being held on the continent in the winter months of June and July, this years World Cup sees two major differences; the venue locations and the kick off times.

While Brazil 1950 was primarily hosted in the mild Southern Eastern cities of Rio and Sao Paulo, 2014 sees the World Cup spread across the nation with a large proportion of games being held in Northern, tropical cities like Salvador, Fortaleza, Natal, Recife, Manaus and Cuiaba – which all boast year-round tropical heat and humidity.

The 2014 World Cup in temperature terms will therefore be similar to the three North American World Cups – Mexico in 1970 & 1986, and the USA in 1994 – where matches were played in extreme heat and humidity, and perhaps not coincidentally where the Europeans have also failed to win.

The heat perhaps wouldn’t be such an issue if games were played late evening.  However, such is the pull of the European audience three games will be played per day – with 24 matches at 1pm Brazilian time.

Players will have to deal with be energy sapping humidity. Take Manaus for example, which lies in the middle of the Amazon rainforest and has an average high temperature of 31C and 82% humidity in June and July.

In venues located in the south and south east of Brazil this won’t be a problem. But to the north east the later kick off times are still expected to be very uncomfortable for the players. This was evident when Spain played Italy in the 2013 Confederations Cup semi-final, the game ending 0-0 as players struggled throughout.

Bettors should consider how these conditions, which have been described as inhumane and merciless, could impact not only the immediate result, but also a nations chance in the later stages of the tournament if they have been exposed to these conditions for a prolonged period of time.

One team who the draw fell kindly on was Argentina. Not only were they drawn alongside Bosnia, Iran and Nigeria, they also play their entire tournament without having to confront the heat of the north east. Which could be a deciding factor in the latter stages of the tournament, while it will be easier for their fans to travel across the border to games, which may create a Home Field Advantage.

Germany and Italy in comparison are exposed to the full brutality of the mid-day Brazilian heat. The Germans who have reached the semi-final in the last three tournaments not only have a tricky group, but will play two games in the 1pm heat of Salvador and Recife, and a third game at 4pm in Fortaleza. Italy will also face difficult conditions – after they play England in Manaus they travel to Recife and Natal for 1pm kick offs.

If, as predicted by the odds, Italy and Germany progress safely out of the group stage, predicting the lasting physical and mental affect these games could have on the squads more accurately than the oddsmakers, could lead to an opportunity to gain an edge.

How will the football be affected?

Given these conditions, bettors should expect to see different styles of play dependent on where the game is being hosted. The pace will be slower, particularly later on in games; which was evident in the Confederations Cup.

The humidity will be draining, so employing a high intensive strategy will sap energy levels quickly. When Italy labored to a 4-3 victory over Japan at the Confederations Cup, manager Cesare Prandelli was quick to make his point “We struggled like crazy tonight. The humidity is really difficult to deal with.”

Nations who are more tolerable to the conditions should be able to maintain energy levels for longer, and it may become apparent that certain teams perform better late in games as their opposition tire.  Managers will play a key role, as they gauge when and who to substitute – read this article on the importance of substitutions.

Possession of the ball will be paramount, so it could be viable that each team has long passages of play, while the other sits back and conserve energy. Of course this style of play will suit certain teams over others, and identifying this before betting will be advantageous.

At USA 1994, Italian midfielder, Roberto Donadoni, neatly outlined the kind of dilemma teams face in extreme conditions.  Push up and press into the opposing half, and risk not be able to get back again.  Sit deep and risk conceding the initiative.

Fitness and conditioning could be crucial

Historically, nations who have won the World Cup have been well conditioned, but fitness could prove more pivotal than ever in 2014.

So much so that hosts Brazil have re-employed renowned fitness coach Paulo Paixao, who worked with manager Luiz Felipe Scolari when the Brazilians last won the World Cup in 2002.

To gauge the impact of playing in such high temperatures and the importance of fitness and conditioning, we can look back at recent World Cup tournaments in America.

In 1994 Italy played Brazil in the final, losing on penalties, and were marshaled by captain Franco Baresi, who had remarkably undergone knee surgery after picking up an injury at the start of the tournament. Baresi returned to win man-of-the-match in the final, with both managers remarkably stating it was better to be injured than tired in such conditions.

In addition at Mexico 1986 England striker Gary Lineker reported losing more than half a stone (in excess of 3 kg) per game and how players felt faint and dizzy.

Travel difficulties

Aside from the heat, travel will affect a number of nations chances of winning during the World Cup.

The chosen format will see many nations criss-cross across South America’s largest country, with the additional burden for those nations who have chosen to be based far away from venues. Bettors should understand the impact the travel will have on certain teams and how they may be handicapped. After all, some teams will not be affected as much as others.

The USA perhaps have the toughest task of qualifying for the knockout stages of all 32 teams. They will have to travel further to play their matches than any other team. For the group stage, it has been estimated that the squad could record as many as 11,500 miles from their base camp in just 10 days – compare this to Belgium, who have just 435 miles to travel for their three games, and it is clear that the draw has been far luckier to some than others.

When betting on the 2014 World Cup it is clear that bettors should gauge both the impact of extreme heat and the affect travelling large distances will have on each squad. Handicapping teams accurately before each game will give bettors an opportunity to notice when bookmakers may have misjudged the affects, presenting an opportunity to earn an edge.

Click here to see the latest World Cup betting odds.

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