French Open 2014: Djokovic to dominate the side markets

This is Djokovic's best chance yet of victory at the French Open

Looking to maintain his record in a profitable column, Jack Houghton thinks a tie break is unlikely, and that the statistics point to a rapid Djokovic victory.

Pre-tournament - quoting some statistics I've been playing with during this season - I said that Djokovic was value to win his first French Open but that Nadal, despite his record-breaking career on clay, was a player to avoid. The lacklustre state of his second serve this year on clay, I wrote, meant that he would struggle to display his usual dominance in France. Whatever problems Nadal has been having with his second serve, though, he seems to have ironed them out, as he's averaged 63% during this Parisian fortnight, a massive improvement on the 51% he's been hitting across the other clay tournaments so far this year.

Before the French Open last year, I wrote that Nadal's powers of recoverability were remarkable, and never to be underestimated, but unfortunately have not seemed to heed my own warning. Nonetheless, provided Djokovic's second-serve stats in his semi-final against Gulbis were a blip in a part of his game that has otherwise been exceptional this week, I retain some faith in the Serbian. It's certainly his best chance yet of beating Nadal at the French Open.

Leaving the main markets to others, though, I'll be taking my usual look at the final's side markets, where there is great value to be had...

Most Aces

Both players are faster servers than they were earlier in their careers, but neither is able to rely on it to deliver many free points, especially on clay. During the tournament so far, Nadal has only served a startlingly meagre four aces, delivering less than 1% of his points. Even for Nadal this figure is low (it usually hovers around 4%), but Djokovic is hardly a world leader in the department either, with slightly less than 5% of his points coming courtesy of the ace. As a comparison, the other semi-finalists, Gulbis and Murray, typically gain around 10% of their points from serving aces.

To date, head-to-head, the pair has only averaged a combined ace total of a little over seven a match (and, as if to prove a point, have served exactly seven between them in their last five matches). Djokovic has served more on 24 occasions (62%), to Nadal's 10 (26%), with five matches ending in a tie. All this tells you that Djokovic should be around the 1.68/13 mark to serve most aces; however, given that Djokovic has served more aces in their last six encounters, and given that Nadal has just not been delivering in this department in the tournament so far, I'd be more than prepared to lay Nadal at any odds up to 4.57/2 to serve the most aces. This way we'll have the draw working for us as well: a relatively common occurrence with these two players.

Tie Break

Perhaps the lack of a big first-serve explains why these two don't play many tie-breaks. In a total of 110 sets, they have only played 11 tie-breaks, one every 10 sets played. Even assuming they play four or five sets in the final, that translates to odds of around 2.47/5 that we'll see a tie-break in Sunday's final, and 1.664/6 that we won't. Given that you can already get 2.021/1, even in the early, less-liquid stages of this market, that there will not be a tie break, I'll be holding out to try and back "No" at around 2.26/5.

Set Betting

Despite how closely matched the two appear, they have not tended to produce especially competitive matches. Of the 145 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've only used 110 of them, or 76 per cent. Applying this to Sunday's final, we might expect to see three or four sets, but, perhaps against expectations, are unlikely to see five. Djokovic has tended to have the edge of late. He's won their last four matches, including, crucially, their only meeting on clay this year. That doesn't take away the fact that Nadal has won their last three meetings in Grand Slams, but I'll be taking a bit of a punt and following my pre-tournament tip of Djokovic and backing him to win 3-0 (7.06/1) and 3-1 (6.5n/a).

Recommendations

2pts lay Nadal at 4.57/2 to serve most aces.
4pts back "No" at 2.26/5 in Tie Break Played market.
2pts back Djokovic at 7.06/1 to win 3-0.
2pts back Djokovic at 6.5n/a to win 3-1.