Australia v Spain: Weakened Aussies pose a minor threat

Despite enjoying home advantage, Diego Costa has struggled in Brazil

The absences of Tim Cahill and perhaps Mark Bresciano are a small mercy for Spain, says Tobias Gourlay

Australia v Spain
Monday June 23 17:00
Live on ITV

Match Odds

The first two teams to confirm their flights home from Brazil get a final hurrah in Curitiba on Monday evening. It remains to be seen how enthusiastic they are about that hurrah. 

Vicente Del Bosque will be considering making a lot of personnel changes, but don't expect to see too much of the next generation of hungry young Spanish talents. Isco, Jese, Iker Muniain, Thiago Alcantara and quite a few others aren't in Brazil. Koke, who should be shattered after a fine season for Atletico Madrid, could start in midfield against Australia, but any other new faces will be understudies rather than long-term replacements. Think Pepe Reina, Juanfran and Raul Albiol.

Whether the understudies are afflicted by the malaise that Xabi Alonso identified a couple of days ago is unclear. Certainly, it's hard to get excited about a 1.422/5 win price.

Australia's Ange Postecoglou is much less surprised to be in this position. His team and their attitude should be much as they have been on previous outings. The only personnel change he has to consider is upfront, where Tim Cahill is suspended.

The absence of the Socceroos' two-goal striker is substantial. Captain Mile Jedinak can keep the fighting spirit going on his own, but where do the goals come from? A Bresciano long shot? But he might be ruled out through injury. A Jedinak penalty?

This column would much rather watch a few minutes of the game, try to assess Spain's level of disarray and the strength of Australia's plan B, and only then enter this market.

Spain Clean Sheet?

With Cahill - and probably Casillas and Pique - out of contention, there might be value in backing Spain to shut out the Aussies at 2.3411/8.

Australia are comfortably bottom-half in Brazil 2014's Shots per Game table (22nd). Spain are ninth in the Shots Conceded per Game table and might consider themselves unlucky to have conceded quite so many goals.

Australia will see less of the ball than they did against either the Dutch or the Chileans and, without attackers in the class of Robben, Van Persie, Vargas and Sanchez, they could struggle to score for a third consecutive game.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Against the Netherlands and Chile, these two conceded at a combined average rate of 3.25 goals per game.

That's partly why Over 2.5 Goals is a 1.635/8 favourite for this winner-takes-nothing encounter, but does either of them have the combination of motivation and talent to emulate Group B's best teams?

A couple of weeks ago, we would have been writing about how Australia's desire to play the ball out from the back would suit Spain very well. Today, let's just note that Diego Costa - Spain's starting striker - has not registered a shot on target in Brazil.

Best Cash Out Opportunity

It's more like a Best Cash In Opportunity. Rather than speculating pre-match about Spain's determination to go out on a (very small) high, watch the first few minutes of the game, then make your move.

If Spain are out to disprove Xabi Alonso's comments and Australia are missing Cahill and Bresciano, the final gap between the two teams should be at least 1.5 goals. 

Best Bet
Back Spain Clean Sheet @ 2.3411/8

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 8pts
Returned: 17.76pts
P/L: +9.76pts