Argentina v Bosnia & Herzegovina: Goals, Goals, Goals

Edin Dzeko will fancy his chances against this defence

Group F provides one of the more intriguing fixtures of the first round as Argentina take on Bosnia & Herzegovina. Paul Robinson has the call...

Argentina v Bosnia & Herzegovina
Sunday June 15, 23:00 BST
Live on BBC One

The FIFA World Cup has barely started and we've already had plenty of food for thought. Tournament hosts and favourites, Brazil, began their campaign with a win but they were hardly convincing, and then, just 24 hours later, defending champions, Spain, suffered a 5-1 humbling at the hands of Holland. 

Second favourites, Argentina, have their first match on Sunday night and their price to lift the trophy has already contracted without kicking a ball. They make the trip to Maracana rated as a 5.14/1 shot to be World Cup winners when the competition finishes in that very stadium on July 13th.

The 1978 and 1986 champions will have to be at their best from the off though as they have been drawn to face their toughest group rivals in their opening match. Alejandro Sabella will be pleased that his side won their two warm-up games - 3-0 and 2-0 successes over Trinidad & Tobago and Slovenia, respectively - but the Bosnians will be a much sterner test.

Nevertheless, Argentina come into this game having lost just one of their previous 19 fixtures - and that was a 3-2 defeat at Uruguay when the manager played an experimental XI. That run also includes a 2-0 victory over Sunday's opponents as the two countries played a friendly in St Louis back in November of last year. Both teams were almost at full strength - Lionel Messi being the main omission - but the game was much closer than the scoreline suggests as Bosnia had the South Americans on the rack during the first half and keeper, Sergio Romero, had to be at his best to deny Vedad Ibisevic and Edin Dzeko. 

If you just looked at Argentina's results you would probably think they have a pretty solid defence as they've now kept five clean sheets in a row. I'm far from convinced though and it would seem that the manager isn't either as he's been experimenting with three at the back. During qualifying they conceded 15 goals in 16 matches - which was more than Colombia and only one less than Ecuador. It is also worth noting that aside from the fortunate clean sheet they achieved against Bosnia, when they've faced any team of merit during their friendly fixtures since 2012, they've conceded at least one goal.

Bosnia and Herzegovina qualified for this tournament with a near perfect record. Eight wins, one draw and one defeat earned them top spot in their group and they racked up an impressive 30 goals in the process. It has to be said that the calibre of opposition they faced wasn't exactly high, but they got the job done, and they got it done well.

Sunday's match will be a historic moment for the country as it's their first major tournament since they became an independent nation. Safet Sui and his players will be bursting with pride when their national anthem is played and I expect them to be full of energy in the opening 20 minutes. 

They come into the game in confident mood as they won both of their warm-up friendlies - the two of which were against decent opposition. A 2-1 success over Ivory Coast was added to by a 1-0 win over Mexico - with Manchester City's, Edin Dzeko, looking particularly sharp. His partnership with Stuttgart's, Vedad Ibisevic, is the key as the pair netted 18 goals in qualifying between them.

I do have my concerns about the defence though as while they only conceded six in qualifying, they had it relatively easy, and main rivals Greece only conceded four. It's not so much the defenders that are the problem, it's the lack of a top quality defensive midfielder. Sejad Salihovic and Haris Medunjanin were the two players vying for that role, and while the manager would have been planning on playing them in a double-pivot for this match, the former suffered an injury in training and his status is up in the air at the moment.

Match Odds
Argentina 1.434/9 Bosnia & Herzegovina 9.28/1 The Draw 5.14/1

The Match Odds market is a bit of an intriguing one as many will have Argentina down as a banker. I can't argue that they shouldn't be favourites, but 1.434/9 does seem rather skinny. Given that both teams know they have easier matches to come in the shape of Nigeria and Iran, a draw wouldn't be the end of the world for either country. 

I don't expect the two of them to go out and play for a 0-0, far from it in fact, but if the scores are level at the final whistle, Sabella and Sui can shake hands with a satisfactory smile on their face.

I'm not hugely in favour of making a selection for this market, but it is the World Cup and it does only comes once every four years. The value has to be in the draw at 5.14/1, but I wouldn't go overboard with the stake.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.910/11 Under 2.5 Goals 2.0811/10

A market that does grab my attention though is the Over/Under 2.5 one. Overs is the marginal favourite at 1.910/11 and that stands-out to me as a fantastic price. I have already touched on the defensive frailties of both teams and they are certainly better going forward than at the back.

Gonzalo Higuain is a slight doubt with an ankle injury, but the Argentines have a more than adequate replacement in the shape of Ezequiel Lavezzi, and the PSG forward will have Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero alongside him.

This is my best bet of the match and I'm hugely confident of it being a winner.

Correct Score  

A cursory look at the Correct Score market has highlighted an opportunity as two scores stand-out to me. A 2-1 win for Argentina is available to back at 9.89/1 and a 2-2 draw is trading at a massive 28.027/1. Dutching the pair - placing bets on both outcomes with differing stakes to achieve the same profit should either win - comes out at odds of around 7.26n/a, and in a game that should produce goals, you will get an excellent run for your money.

Cash Out  

Regular readers of my match previews will know that a perennial favourite of mine is to place bets in the Over 4.5, Over 5.5 and Over 6.5 goals markets and then look to cash out once a couple of goals - preferably early ones - go in.

If you've been paying attention you will have deduced that I think this will be a high-scoring affair, and therefore the aforementioned markets should provide decent trading opportunities.

Over 4.5 can be backed at 6.611/2, Over 5.5 at 14.5n/a and Over 6.5 at 38.037/1. With so much attacking talent on the pitch there surely has to be goals, and if they come during the first half, the prices of the above will plummet.

Recommended Bets
Back The Draw @ 5.14/1 1pt
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.910/11 2pts
Dutch Correct Scores of 2-1 and 2-2 @ 7.26n/a 1pt

Best Cash Out
Back Over 4.5, Over 5.5 and Over 6.5 Goals