среда, 11 июня 2014 г.

AEGON Championships Betting: Grass specialist Hewitt a big price at Queen's

Hewitt can go well on the grass again this week Hewitt can go well on the grass again this week

The grass court season is upon us and tennis expert Sean Calvert has picked out two value bets at Queen's and Halle this week...

The clay court swing is over and it's time to look forward to the grass court mini-season, and our first tournaments are into their final years as ATP 250 events.

Next year the Queen's Club and Halle events will be given ATP 500 status in the longer grass swing, but both always attract the top stars of the game even as 250s.

This year's line-up in the Aegon Championships features Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Ernests Gulbis, Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while as usual Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal headline the Gerry Weber Open in Halle.

Three-time champion and French Open semi finalist Murray is defending at Queen's - if he turns up at all after his clearly exhausting Paris campaign - and should he play, which he probably will, he has been drawn in a comfortable-looking quarter.

Murray's section includes Kevin Anderson, Radek Stepanek, Vasek Pospisil and Bernard Tomic, which doesn't look too taxing and it would be a shock if he didn't make the semi finals at least in that sort of company.

Seeded three, Andy would probably face either Berdych or Gulbis according to the seedings, but the latter may well be fatigued after Paris, while the former looked well below par against Gulbis in the last eight in the French.

It could well be that the well-rested, grass-loving Feli Lopez makes the last four rather than either Tomas or Ernie and he looks a viable choice as a long shot.

Lopez's record isn't as good as one might expect in this tournament though, with a 9-8 mark and a best of a semi final back in 2010 and perhaps it isn't too late for Lleyton Hewitt to go on another run on his favourite surface.

The veteran Aussie if he still has enough in his legs this summer looks the best of the big prices and after making the semis last year before being beaten by Marin Cilic in a match that was moved to a different court, Rusty certainly has the form on grass.

Hewitt made the final of Newport after Wimbledon last year and is 15-5 in his last 20 matches on the green stuff, with wins over Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Potro, Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov in that run. If he's fit and healthy he could be a threat at 40.039/1.

Over in Halle, the obvious tactic is to back a player in the Nadal half of the draw, with the Spaniard often putting in only a token effort here after his French Open exertions and it could prove a good idea to back Philipp Kohlschreiber.

The German goes well on home soil, winning here in 2011 and also landing titles in Munich and Dusseldorf on the clay, and he has a solid 24-8 record here, where he defeated Nadal two years ago.

Andreas Seppi also goes well on grass and could well be a tough opening round opponent for the German, but Seppi's form has been poor all year and Kohlschreiber has won four of their last six meetings and has home advantage.

Federer has an outstanding record here, with a 43-5 record and looks the clear choice in the bottom half, but there are plenty of interesting contenders in both sides of the draw this year in Halle.

Milos Raonic will be a popular choice given the recent improvements in his game, but for me he still has to prove he can play on grass, after failing miserably to adapt to the green stuff in the past.

Jerzy Janowicz is a threat on his grass form last year, but he will be under pressure to perform over the next few weeks with big points to defend from Wimbledon and he's looked ragged this season to put it mildly.

Richard Gasquet made the semis here last year, but is he over his back problems? The straight sets loss to Fernando Verdasco in Paris would suggest not, while Tommy Haas has ongoing shoulder problems and Mikhail Youzhny has been poor all season so far.

Kei Nishikori looks too short in the betting after a fine early clay swing and is unlikely to master Federer if and when they meet in the semi finals.

So, Kohlschreiber for me in Halle and although Murray is the likely winner at Queen's my shortlist would include Cilic, Hewitt and Nicolas Mahut at much more appealing prices.

Best Bet
Back Kohlschreiber in Halle @ 20.019/1

Best Cash Out Opportunity
Back Hewitt at Queen's @ 40.039/1

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий