четверг, 6 июня 2013 г.

Queen Anne Stakes: Farhh to follow up Lockinge win

Sheikh Mohammed has an interest in both Farhh and Animal Kingdom

Timeform's Tony McFadden looks ahead to the Queen Anne Stakes, which could feature a fascinating clash between Animal Kingdom and Farhh...

Royal Ascot racegoers were treated to a truly historic performance in last year's opening contest, the Queen Anne Stakes, as the imperious Frankel strode 11 lengths clear of his rivals, putting up a performance rated as the best in Timeform's history. 

Following that destructive performance, the issue of Frankel's legacy became a point of great debate as many people thought simply pulverising his rivals under optimum conditions wasn't enough for him to be labelled as the greatest ever. There was a real cry from the public for Frankel to be fully tested under a variety of conditions, and it was interesting to note just how important a trait some deemed versatility to be.

One horse that has certainly enhanced his reputation by displaying admirable versatility is the Graham Motion-trained Animal Kingdom. With a Kentucky Derby, a Dubai World Cup and a runner-up effort in a Breeders' Cup Mile on his CV, Animal Kingdom has shown his ability to adapt to a variety of conditions in a manner rarely seen. The globe-trotting five-year-old is seemingly unperturbed by track, continent or trip and can be relied upon to churn out high-class performances.

The key question, however, is while Animal Kingdom's versatility will ensure he wins plenty of races, will it help him run to a figure high enough to win this specific race, the Queen Anne Stakes? 

On the figures, a reproduction of Animal Kingdom's best form- which is the rating of 128 he achieved in the Dubai World Cup- would actually see him win most renewals of the Queen Anne. However, don't be fooled by people telling you he is up against a substandard bunch of British milers. The division is obviously weaker without Frankel and Excelebration, but it was a case of them being exceptionally good as opposed to the horses they were beating being exceptionally bad, and the Godolphin-owned Farhh has numerous pieces of form that match or exceed anything Animal Kingdom has to offer.

People have tried to decry the merit of Farhh's victory in the Lockinge Stakes, pointing to a lack of depth to the race, but the fact is, aside from Frankel's win the previous year, Farhh produced a performance as good as any since Hawk Wing blitzed his rivals in 2003 and did so seemingly without being fully extended.

Sometimes it pays to be sceptical of wide-margin wins and were it the only performance of note on Farhh's record that may be the case; however, Farhh produced numerous high-class efforts in defeat last year which suggested that he was capable of a display like the one he produced at Newbury. As an added bonus, the impressive timefigure he clocked adds further substance to the form.

Maybe it is because he was beaten on five occasions last season, coming up slightly short every time he was tried at the top level, but people seem reluctant to accept Farhh as the star of the one-mile division this season. Animal Kingdom undoubtedly has the more exciting profile and is a fascinating contender but, according to our figures, he hasn't produced a performance on a par with Farhh's Lockinge win.

Another factor to note is that the Animal Kingdom will be tackling a straight mile for the first time at Ascot. Whereas Farhh's best effort came over a straight mile at Newbury, the American-based Animal Kingdom has unsurprisingly only ever encountered a left-handed bend. It will represent a different test to Animal Kingdom and, while you suspect his proven ability to adapt to new surroundings will stand him in good stead, it must register as an unknown.

I have omitted to mention any potential rivals to the big two, partly because nothing else has the form to get close to an on-song Animal Kingdom and Farhh, but mainly because running plans remain unknown at this stage. And it is this uncertainty regarding running plans that makes this race a difficult ante-post proposition. 

It must be stated that Farhh's participation is by no means assured as he could be rerouted to the Prince of Wales's, a contest in which he finished an unlucky third last year. Sheikh Mohammed purchased a stake in Animal Kingdom following his impressive Dubai World Cup win and he may view it in his best interests to send Farhh on a mission to further knock some of the gloss off Camelot as opposed to taking on his newly-acquired stallion prospect. 

It would be a shame if Farhh were to take up his Prince of Wales's engagement as, not only would it deprive us off a fascinating clash in the Queen Anne, it would deprive us of a good betting opportunity. Animal Kingdom's profile and success under a variety of different conditions has really caught the imagination, but, come the Queen Anne, it will only be his ability over the straight turf mile at Ascot that matters.

He would have a massive advantage over Farhh on dirt, he would have a massive advantage over Farhh on tapeta, but at Ascot he faces Farhh on the Godolphin horse's terms, needing to show improved form to beat him. The market looks sure to rate Animal Kingdom as the better horse- and depending on how you define a horse's merit he may well be - but it is hard to accept that he is the most likely winner of this specific contest should Farhh line up in opposition.

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