четверг, 20 июня 2013 г.

Channel 4 Racing Tips: Sharp still Well treated to follow up York romp

Will JP and Jonjo have a winner at Royal Ascot on Tuesday?

Tony Calvin takes a look at the opening day of the 2013 Royal Ascot meeting and recommends two runners at double-figure prices for you to consider...

I know the line is trotted out every time there is an even money favourite in a high-profile race and it can get be a bit tiresome.

But I am often tiresome - perhaps that is what the T in my initials stands for, though I will let you speculate on what the C may denote... so I'll say it anyway.

Animal Kingdom really is the classic "Betfair" horse in the Queen Anne at 14:30. It is the archetypal "lay or play" horse because I don't think there is much middle ground with the horse at the price, as perverse as it seems to say.

Many will simply look at his profile coming into this - Kentucky Derby winner, unlucky second in Breeders' Cup Mile, Dubai World Cup winner - and believe he is head and shoulders above one of the weakest Queen Anne fields that I can recall. And perhaps they are right to.

But others will take a more hard-headed approach, and think there is just a little bit of hype attached to his price.

In the absence of a Frankel or Black Caviar, he has been labelled and marketed as the superstar of this meeting for a long time, and you just wonder what price he would have been without the column inches, and media interest, around him.

A damn sight bigger than evens is my guess.

Remember, this is a horse with only 3lb in hand according to Timeform ratings, who hasn't won over a mile or experienced a straight track, and his jockey does not have a straightforward tactical task now that he has been drawn 13 of 13.

On balance, I am a layer at evens.

But even money bets is not what this column is about - unless I think they should be 1-2 or shorter, that is - and I reckon there is a very decent bet at odds of 14.013/1+ in the 17:00, in the shape of Well Sharp.

He is not ideally drawn in 16 of 20 - even though it is a 2m4f race, the draw is important here - but he was so impressive over 2m at York last time that he is worth chancing. Even though 10lb higher for that six length win, but I believe that rise is bridgeable.

Three other things are in his favour, too. One, the fact he has won over 2m5f over hurdles cannot be a negative, as he steps up to 2m4f here; two, he has Royal Ascot form - he finished third to Brown Panther in the King George V Stakes two years ago; three, less obvious, is what the Betfair market may have suggested before his York win last month.

He was tipped up by the Racing Post's Paul Kealy at York, yet still drifted like a barge, and returned at 16-1. But that doesn't tell half the story as the JP McManus-owned horse returned at a colossal 27.39 at Betfair SP, suggesting the win came as something of a surprise to someone. If he did need the race at York, then double-figure odds about him here could prove very generous.

The rest of the card looks exceptionally tricky, but I can't resist a minimum-stakes bet on one at a massive price in the Coventry at 16:25. Lanark, who currently trades at over 40.039/1 on Betfair, is worth a nibble.

Many will look at the form of his narrow Goodwin win and scoff - even more so if they notice that the third horse home was beaten at 1-3 next time! - but he showed a very willing attitude to win there and was well on top at the line.

That was also a decent effort on the clock, and today's, hopefully better, ground is thought to suit him better than the good to soft last time. At odds of 40.039/1+, he is worth chancing. I was also going to put up Riverboat Springs, whose run at Epsom last time has to be seen to believed, but I will stick with Lanark as my sole selection.

Recommended Bets

Back Well Sharp 17:00 Royal Ascot @ 14.013/1 or bigger
Back Lanark 16:25 Royal Ascot @ 40.039/1 or bigger

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