Against All Odds: Goals on Sunday

Maxi Rodriguez still oozes class

Newell's Old Boys can all but secure the Torneo Final title and book their place in the Argentinian Championship match if they win at Atletico Rafaela this evening and Paul Robinson thinks that will lead to at least three goals.

Atletico Rafaela are 10th in the current standings after finishing 13th in the Torneo Inicial. They have already beaten their points tally from the first half of the campaign with two games left to play, however as both San Martin de San Juan and Argentinos Juniors won last night, it's still mathematically possibly that they can be relegated.

Jorge Burruchaga's side only need a point from their last two matches to ensure safety and as they have to travel to Velez on the final day, tonight is probably their best chance. La Crema will be aided by the fact that all away fans are banned in Argentina at the moment after numerous scenes of violence but with the firepower of their opponents, it's unlikely that they will be able to sit back and hold out for a 0-0. Rafaela's last match finished in a 2-2 draw and they have now conceded seven goals in their last four outings.

Newell's Old Boys have completely dominated the Torneo Final and could be on for a historic treble as they are through to the semis of the Copa Libertadores and the last 16 of the Copa Argentina. After a recent blip at All Boys that let River Plate back into the title picture, they hammered Union Santa Fe 5-0 on Monday in what could have been a cricket score.

Ignacio Scocco took his tally of goals to 29 for the season in that match and ex Liverpool man Maxi Rodriguez struck twice. Gerardo Martino's men have outscored every other club by a minimum of seven goals, yet they only have the ninth best defensive record. Eight of their last 10 in the league have gone over 2.5 goals, with six going over 3.5, two over 4.5 and the 4-3 victory over Racing Club going over 6.5.

This should be a really good match as both teams have so much to play for. The nature of Newell's tactics should ensure that we see some goals, so therefore with under 2.5 trading at around the 1.784/5 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Atletico Rafaela v Newells @ 1.784/5 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:10 GMT

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 166 pts
Returned: 156.86 pts
P/L – 9.14 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)