Against All Odds: My Girona have the knack for goals

Almeria will be desperate to get back to pitting their wits against the likes of Real Madrid

It's the first leg of the Spanish Segunda Division Play-off final tonight between Girona and Almeria and Paul Robinson thinks we should see at least three goals.

Girona negotiated their way past Alcorcon in the semis thanks to a 3-1 victory at home in the second leg. After drawing 1-1 away, Rubi's men had the tie wrapped up by half time at Estadi Montilivi as they took a 2-0 lead. They are now 180 minutes away from La Liga, which is quite an achievement given their lowly 15th place finish in 2012.

The key to their success has been in-front of goal as they scored 74 times during the regular season - the third best total in the division. They needed to be that prolific though as with 56 conceded, only six teams had a worse defensive record. Looking at their home form - seven of their last nine have gone over 2.5 goals, with six going over 3.5, three over 4.5, two over 5.5 and the 5-2 victory against Real Murcia going over 6.5.

Almeria just missed out on automatic promotion on the final day after losing at Villarreal. I'm sure they would have taken the play-offs at the start of the campaign though as they finished seventh last year. It took a late winner in extra time against nine man Las Palmas in the semi-final to make it this far and that will have at least put the players on a high.

As far as the goals go, Javi Gracia's side only scored two less than their opponents during the league phase but they were a touch tighter at the back with 50 conceded. They drew the away leg at Las Palmas, however they squandered plenty of decent opportunities, and the 1-1 final score could easily have been 1-3 or 1-4. The last meeting between these two also produced three goals back at the beginning of the month.

With so much at stake this could end up being quite a cagey affair, but there is just enough evidence to suggest we could see a few goals. Under 2.5 is very short at around the 1.715/7 mark, and that's why I'm making it my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Girona v Almeria @ 1.715/7

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 169 pts
Returned: 161.10 pts
P/L – 7.90 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)