England v New Zealand T20 Betting: Kiwis good value to beat inexperienced hosts

Brendon McCullum will probably bat at No 3

Ed Hawkins reckons an inexperienced home side will suffer at the hands of the Kiwis at the Oval on Tuesday

England v New Zealand
Start time: 18.30
TV: live on Sky Sports 1

England
England are back at work this morning after their miserable late night in Birmingham but not all of the players who were involved in the loss to India in the Champions Trophy final will turn up. Eoin Morgan, the captain, Jos Buttler, Ravi Bopara and James Tredwell must raise their games. Big guns James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Steve Finn and Graeme Swann are all rested. Otherwise it is a green-looking squad. There is star talent, though, but not until the second match on Thursday. Kevin Pietersen is included after recovering from his knee injury. He warmed up nicely for his return to the international fold with a brilliant century for Surrey against Yorkshire. Yorkshire's Gary Balance could make his debut.

New Zealand
Unlike the hosts, the Kiwis have selected pretty much their strongest squad available. Brendon McCullum, Ross Taylor, Martin Guptill, James Franklin are all there. As is Mitchell McClenaghan, who was joint-top wicket-taker in the Champions Trophy with Anderson. Unlike England, New Zealand have decent pace options. Kyle Mills and Ian Butler provide a wealth of experience. There is no Daniel Vettori, though, who is injured. In his place looking to exploit the English weakness against spin, which India once again exposed, are Ronnie Hira and Nathan McCullum.

First-innings runs
The average score in the last ten T20s at The Oval is 156. But there is no real trend to speak of and scores have been wildly inconsistent. New Zealand, for example, were bowled out for 99 by Pakistan in 2009 while earlier that day South Africa posted 183 against West Indies. There is a 50-50 toss split on the six day-night matches. In England's last match at the venue in 2011 they were bowled out for 88 by West Indies, losing by 25 runs. The weather is not scorching but it's not raining, either.

Match odds
With England 1.804/5 and New Zealand 2.206/5 the odds seem to have been set by folk who reckon England are fielding their strongest XI. We could undertstand the prices if the famed fast-bowling attack was present but not with this job lot. England's bowling looks weak and vulnerable to the power hitting New Zealand have displayed this summer. Jade Dernbach's record is poor while Chris Woakes and Boyd Rankin are unproven.

It should not be forgotten that England beat New Zealand 2-1 in February but Broad and Finn were playing in that series. It was a rare success anyway. Their recent record is not good enough to warrant such prices it appears. England have five defeats in their last nine. New Zealand's record is worse but given that England have just reminded the world of their failings with an abysmal bottle job in a 'T20' in Birmingham, we have no qualms about getting with the Kiwis. They are 3.7511/4 to win the two-match series with England 2.707/4 and the draw 2.3811/8.

Top England runscorer
Michael Lumb and Alex Hales are expected to open the batting and are both priced at 4.30100/30. However, Hales has been in such awful form that Nottinghamshire dropped him from their Championship side. Morgan at 5.509/2 represents better value and it would be a choice between the Irishman and Bopara, who batted well in the Champions Trophy and is likely to be go off at a similar price.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Brendon McCullum, the No 3, and Guptill are tied for jolly status at 4.003/1. Guptill dominated England in the one-day series and also top-scored in the T20 series in New Zealand at the start of the year. Hamish Rutherford and Ross Taylor are hovering around the 4.507/2 mark. Rutherford and Guptill will probably open the batting as they did against Kent in a warm-up when the latter top scored with 56.

Recommended bet
Back New Zealand at 2.206/5