Will Greenwood: Lions to edge it but smart money sees value bet in Australia

Leigh Halfpenny has been in excellent form

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is surprised at how long the odds are on an Australia win in the first Lions test, but can see the tourists just about scraping home...

In a turn of events that Warren Gatland and his men would hardly have planned, the British and Irish Lions go into this Saturday's first test match against Australia in the Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on the back of a defeat against Super Rugby table-toppers Brumbies. It's difficult to tell how much one should read into that game; as I mentioned in my Telegraph column, half the back-line had flown in from another continent not long before the fixture and that team wasn't anything like the side Gatland will field this weekend.

That said, there were worrying signs that have developed as a theme on this tour. The lineout has wobbled. On Tuesday Rory Best was far from his best, especially in the line-out. The Lions could have had a back-line featuring Campese, Lomu and Sella in that game and they'd still have lost. Without a set piece platform you will always struggle. on this tour the line-out is arguably the most important set piece of the lot, given the way that scrums are refereed these days. That is an area that simply must improve in time for the first test.

Brumbies game aside, I've been impressed with the touring side when they've been truly tested. The performances against the Waratahs and the Reds were decent and those XVs were far closer to who we can expect to see starting on Saturday.

As for the test match itself, what an encounter it's going to be. For all the chat about preparation and tour games, this is where it really counts. Those Lions better be prepared mentally for an unrivalled amount of passion and desire inside that stadium: the partisan crowd roaring on their boys, dressed in their 'Lions Killers' t-shirts, the Australian XV almost literally champing to get started after being holed up in their training camp for so long. Whatever transpires throughout the evening, that first 20 minutes is going to be brutal. When I made my Lions debut, the intensity was unlike anything I had ever experienced before. I'll never forget it.

Early on, it's about keeping your head, not getting a rush of blood and making a silly decision and trying to be as precise as you can with your passing, your tackling and your kicking. The game plan and tactics will be so far out of the window in those early exchanges it's untrue. Only after that will the team that settles first have the best chance of emerging with a famous win.

They may not have played for a while but I think we can safely say a couple of things for sure about the Wallabies going into this game: they won't mess around in the deep and they'll look for width once they have territory. Movement and angles to find the edges to a very confrontational Lions blitz defence. A defence that won't have played together an awful lot before. How the tourists work together to deal with that will be absolutely key.

When I first looked at the odds for this tie, I thought I was seeing things. Australia are, unbelievably, way out at 2.789/5 to win. At home. In the Suncorp Stadium. I can't remember the last time I saw a home Australia side priced that big to win a game, let alone against a team who still have question marks over them. The fact is, even in defeat to the Lions, Australia have always gone close. When we think back to that famous 13-29 Lions win at the Gabba in 2001, it's spoken about in hushed tones like it was a rout. Yet it was only a margin of 16 points, and then they went on to defeat us in the next two tests. That shows you how highly regarded the Wallabies are. At that 2.789/5 price, you have to make them the value bet, simply because they are very capable of winning this test match.

I actually think the Lions can scrape home in this opening test via the boot of Leigh Halfpenny though. He's kicked 22/23 and hasn't missed when he's started a game on this tour. He's essentially as close as it gets to unflappable with the boot. I like the look of Lions penalty at 2.829/5 in the First Scoring Play market as well. If they can force Australia on to the back foot early a penalty seems highly likely and you'd fancy Halfpenny to knock it over without too much trouble. That price represents excellent value.

And remember, life is a game of inches....

Recommended Bets

Back Australia to win the First Test at 2.789/5
Back Lions Penalty in the First Scoring Play market at 2.829/5 

Don't forget, to bet on this event you'll need to use the Australian wallet. To find out more, click here.