England v New Zealand T20 Betting: Pietersen factor not enough to curb Kiwis

Luke Wright top scored for England in the first T20

Ed Hawkins, who tipped New Zealand to win game one, says the Kiwis should be backed again at the same price for a repeat at The Oval on Thursday

England v New Zealand
Start time:
TV: live on Sky Sports 1

England
The five-run defeat by New Zealand at The Oval on Tuesday was hardly a bitter pill to swallow for the hosts. England gambled on youth and in some respects they, and their supporters, were rewarded. It was a typically green performance from a young side: chaotic, energetic and over-excitable in the field.

But with the bat they were fearless, aggressive and, ultimately, just short of nous. There is much to be pleased with although their expensive bowling is a major worry for game two. Chris Woakes looks likely to lose his spot after bowling one over for 19. But that's OK as England need to find room for Kevin Pietersen who makes a long-awaited return following a knee problem. The hosts used seven bowlers anyway so not replacing Woakes with a like-for-like is not a problem.

New Zealand
The Kiwis showed no mercy on a flat Oval wicket as Hamish Rutherford and Brendon McCullum got them off to a flying start. Ross Taylor's 32 from 19 balls continued the demolition work as they posted 201. It was just as well as Martin Guptill was missing for some reason. Without him they are undeniably weaker and whether he makes this XI - he was named in the squad - remains to be seen. It is possible to make a case for the Kiwi batting tail being too long. It might start at No 8. Corey Anderson is slated for that slot and, although he has a first-class century to his name, he is unproven at this level.

First-innings runs
Before game one we said that The Oval can be an unpredictable wicket. There were highs and lows in a first-innings average of 153 over the last 10. But on Tuesday the surface lived up to its reputation for being great to bat on and following the true striking seen in that match we wouldn't advise getting short of anything around 160. The weather forecast is not as good. There is cloud cover all day and although that might help swing, it's not something we need to be betting on.

Match odds
No change on the match odds market and that has to be down to the Pietersen factor. England are 1.804/5 for victory with New Zealand 2.206/5. Can one player really make that much difference? Well, in Twenty20 one can. And there are few more powerful than Pietersen. But this column wouldn't be doing its job if we were swayed by the swagger of one player. Before The Oval the evidence was staring at us in the face that New Zealand were overpriced. After giving England's bowlers a good duffing nothing has changed. It is possible that New Zealand are too reliant on McCullum and Taylor but we'll take that chance all the same.

Top England runscorer
Pietersen will probably be priced at around 4.003/1 for honours. He is in good form having crunched Yorkshire's bowlers for Surrey last week and The Oval is his home ground. In all international cricket he averages 47 there, which is pretty impressive. But his T20 record at the venue is not so good - one 50 in four attempts. Pietersen is likely to bat at No 3, usurping Luke Wright who top scored with 52 from 34. Alex Hales and Michael Lumb, who both impressed, will attract support and will probably be 4.003/1. That's also down to the KP factor.

Top New Zealand runscorer
James Franklin was the surprise choice to open the batting with Hamish Rutherford. It did not come off as he was dismissed for a golden duck. If Guptill does not make it, Franklin may get another chance but you should know that although he can whack it, a strike rate of 118 is probably not high enough to warrant support, particularly with the market wise to the potential batting order. McCullum and Taylor will see most money but don't forget that Rutherford was only six runs shy of pipping Super Mac for honours.

Recommended bet
Back New Zealand at 2.206/5