Handicappers' Corner: Dawn's failure contributes to low view of Derby form

Ryan Moore: Successful aboard Ruler Of The World in the Derby.

Much of the pre-race focus on the Derby centred on Dawn Approach, the clear form choice, but with him badly fluffing his lines, it left the way open for others to enhance their reputation. David Johnson looks at the action from the weekend from the Timeform Ratings perspective...

As a keen scholar, Sheikh Mohammed is no doubt aware of Latin phrases such as 'Audaces fortuna iuvat' (fortune favours the bold) and 'Si nihil temptes raro cade' (If you attempt nothing, you will rarely fail). Few anticipated that Dawn Approach's attempt to stretch out to the Derby trip would result in such a spectacular failure as transpired on Saturday, his chance all but over before the field had even finished climbing so hard did he pull in the opening stages.

Instead it was the unbeaten Ruler of The World that became the first horse to win a British classic whilst wearing cheekpieces that triumphed, a length and a half ahead of Libertarian with the field quite well bunched in behind, a result that takes some unravelling.

The winner of this year's Derby has been credited with a bare form rating of 122+, which historically is very much on the low side, only Pour Moi (120+) and Sir Percy (119+) have run to lower figures in victory since 1970. Based on the last five runnings, standards suggest a figure of 123/120/125/125/125 for Ruler of The World.  

The run of the race was obviously crucial to how things panned out, and contributed to a lowish view being taken of the form. A fair early pace steadied notably mid-race and led to something of a sprint finish, (the race returned a moderate timefigure of just 97) and those that raced handily were seen to better effect than the closers, the first two both worth extra over the bare result.

Ruler of The World earns a new master rating of 124p, and is the one to beat at this stage for the Irish Derby, but Libertarian can give him plenty to think about if he is supplemented for that contest, forced to come from even further back than the winner, and finishing best of all to grab second on the post. He earns a new rating of 122p.

The third, Galileo Rock was suited by the step up to a mile and a half and earns a new rating of 120, but was better placed than many and it might be that he'll need even further to keep moving forward. Battle of Marengo was also well placed given he dictated, and his rating has been pulled down to 119.

The next three home look better long-term prospects given the right conditions, Ocovango met trouble and has been rated as finishing joint-third on 120p and looks a leading contender for the Grand Prix de Paris back home, Mars was just about worst placed of all and has been given 3 lb over the bare result to earn a figure of 119p, while the non-staying Chopin is unchanged from his pre-race figure of 119p.

The Oaks the previous afternoon was run in markedly contrasting fashion (Simon Rowlands' sectionals blog goes into more detail HERE) to the Derby, where the leaders went off too hard, and a patient ride proved an asset.

Talent came home three and three quarter lengths ahead of stable companion Secret Gesture, but the way the race was run favoured her compared to the runner-up and if they reoppose again it will be no surprise to see the runner-up gain her revenge.

Historical standards for the Oaks give a wider range than the Derby, 114-125, with a median of 118, and it is that figure which Talent has been given, higher than the three previous winners, but below the likes of Sariska, Look Here and Light Shift.

A strict interpretation of pounds per length has Secret Gesture 6 lb behind Talent, but because of the way the race was run, Secret Gesture has been given 4 lb over the bare result. Even that is arguably on the conservative side, and she is now rated 116p.

The campaigning of The Lark is one that will delight her owner breeder, Lady Bamford but will leave punters and readers of Timeform's Horses To Follow pulling their hair out. Selected at the end of her 2-y-o season as one to win a number of handicaps from a BHA mark of 76, she's improved markedly in two runs this season to earn black type for all she hasn't yet gained further success, her third in the Oaks sees her now rated 110.

The other Group 1 at Epsom was the Coronation Cup which once again went the way of St Nicholas Abbey who became the first horse to win the race in three consecutive years. He's rated 128, essentially as a good as ever a 6-y-o. A strict interpretation of the form could see him rated slightly higher, both on prior rating standards and historical standards, but this was a race where he had only one realistic rival in Dunaden who came in for a negative ride.

There was also classic action in France this weekend with the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. Intello had looked a most unlucky loser in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains on his previous start and had no problems making amends, a comfortable two length winner over Morandi. His rating increases to 122p, and he's potentially a high-class colt.

Although very much in the shadows of Epsom, Doncaster hosted an informative card on Saturday and there are potential clues for Royal Ascot. Remote was as easier a winner of the one-mile handicap as you are likely to see, and his rating of 115p suggests he's up to mixing it out of handicaps. The fact he's also proven at a mile and quarter means the Tercentenary Stakes could be on his agenda.

That race, or the King Edward VII could be a target for Elkaayed after he easily won the three-runner minor event later in the afternoon. He's won both his starts this year and is now rated 112p. Finally, Rex Imperator (115) caught the eye when finishing second in the 7f won by Diescentric. Back down to the mark he defied at Windsor last summer, he'll be among the pick of weights for the Wokingham if that's the target of his new trainer William Haggas.       

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