US Open Update: Why it can pay to back today's later starters

Nic Colsaerts is in a promising position

Paul Krishnamurty updates his trading advice for the US Open at Merion, where he argues the best place to be this afternoon is sat in the clubhouse watching the rest toil...

Day one at the US Open may have been a slightly frustrating, stop-start affair thanks to the rain, but the fact the schedule is running behind may offer punters a significant betting angle today. In short, my plan is to back players sitting safely in the clubhouse, who won't have to start their second round until tonight, in expectation of a very tough day's golf.

Pity the 70 odd players midway through their rounds. After a short sleep, they must resume this morning at what is forecast to be the windiest time of the day, amidst a constant threat of rain. Then, before conditions have notably improved, they'll start their second round on a very tough golf course that is not going to get easier.

Those issues regarding the weather and draw are reason enough in themselves to prefer today's late starters and the course offers a further angle. As explained in my hole-by-hole, in-play guide, while there are plenty of birdie opportunities at the beginning and middle of the course, the final five holes are brutal. Those playing the course the right way round will do extremely well just to retain their position by the end of the first round. It is no coincidence that the four main contenders currently under par on the course - Luke Donald, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson and Lee Westwood - have all yet to begin that tough closing stretch. 

As the day progresses, the small number of early starters that shot even par or better will be sat in the clubhouse watching their position getting better and their odds shortening. At present there are only 15 players under par, only two of whom have completed their round and another eight were rated as 1000.0n/a no-hopers pre-tournament. Given the tough nature of the course, more and more will have fallen away completely by the time players like Phil Mickelson and Nicolas Colsaerts eventually start their second round. I can envisage their odds shortening by up to 20% throughout the day.

For that reason I wouldn't deter anyone from backing Phil at 7.413/2, but there is far more trading mileage on bigger priced selections. Basically, if you fancy any of the players currently finished on +1 or better, this is a great time to back them. The pair I like are Colsaerts at 60.059/1 and Tim Clark at 85.084/1. Neither may stand out as obvious major winners, but they certainly have the tools to contend. 

The mercurial Colsaerts was right in the thick of it through 54 holes on last year's US Open debut and is a former World Matchplay champion. He strikes me as a man for the big occasion. Merion looks absolutely perfect for a short, straight, experienced type like Clark. He's been placed in majors before and has always looked well-suited to the US Open. In fact, he was very much on my 100 winner shortlist so, having preferred others, it's a relief to see he's still available at such generous odds.

My trading plan is to stake seven units in total, then place a lay order at 10.09/1 on both men. If either hits the target, we'll almost triple our money while retaining a substantial extra profit were they to win the tournament. If we reach that target, I'll update the trading advice later in the tournament.

Recommended bets

Back Nicolas Colsaerts 4u @ 60.059/1
Back Tim Clark 3u @ 85.084/1

Place order to lay both players 20u @ 10.09/1>