пятница, 21 июня 2013 г.

Ryan Moore at Royal Ascot: My thoughts on day four

Ryan has another six rides at Royal Ascot today

A few of Ryan Moore's rides will need to improve to figure in the feature races says the jockey himself, but with six rides on the card you'll need to know what the Betfair Ambassador thinks of each one...

14:30 Ascot - Wonderfully

I have watched the video of her debut win over 6f on fast ground at Fairyhouse earlier this month a couple of times, and she did very well to win there, looking very green and inexperienced before getting up on the line. The bare form of that win obviously leaves her with a lot to find with the likes of Sandiva, but I like the way she picked up for Joseph there and you would have to think that run would have brought this sister to Mars on a good deal.

As I said, it will have to have though if she is going to beat the likes of Sandiva, who sets quite a high standard to aim at on her Naas listed win last time. You had to be impressed with the style of Frankel's half-sister Joyeuse's win at Lingfield, but she did look very green there and I just wonder whether she may still be a bit too inexperienced for a race like this.

15:05 Ascot - Hillstar

People may look at this and say this horse has been beaten off marks of 83 and 92, so what are you doing running in it in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot? Well, the answer is that we think he is better than a handicapper and things have not panned out for him in his two races this season. He has always worked like a good horse and, if it all clicks into place, then you will hopefully see it on the track one day. Although he is a half-brother to 1m4f winner Crystal Capella, he isn't guaranteed to stay this trip on breeding, but clearly we will feel that it may suit him.

The Derby form is beginning to look a bit better than many people thought at the time, with Mars running so well in defeat behind Dawn Approach, and Battle Of Marengo is clearly the horse to beat. He didn't impress everyone when winning the Derrinstown but I thought he ran really well, considering he cut out the running, when fourth at Epsom. If he runs up to that level of form today - and it is always a worry when you back up from Epsom to Ascot - the rest of us have to improve 10lb and upwards to beat him.

15:45 Ascot - Pavlosk

Clearly, Sky Lantern and Just The Judge, the first two home in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket with the runner-up winning the Irish equivalent next time, are the two to beat in here. But there is some depth to this race, and Big Break of Dermot Weld's is a horse I like and apparently they think a fair bit of Viztoria, who won on her reappearance at the Curragh, too.

So my filly Pavlosk has a lot to prove upped to Group 1 company. But we have always liked her and the manner of her York listed race win didn't take us totally by surprise. She has obviously continued to please us at home, hence she was supplemented, and she is clearly open to a lot of progression after just two runs. But it's a big leap up to this class - we have 10lb to find - so let's hope she has that much improvement in her. It's a big ask.

16:25 Ascot - Labarinto

Was a bit of an in-and-out performer last season but is a decent horse on his day as he showed when winning at Sandown last September. However, he paid for that victory with a pretty harsh 7lb rise in the weights, so I very much doubt if he is the best handicapped horse in here. But he is in good shape and has been working well at home, so let's hope he is on a going day; 1m2f on fast ground are his conditions and being drawn 9 of 16 is ok, too. Not great, but ok.

17:00 Ascot - Feel Like Dancing

Looked promising when winning on his debut at Newbury but he wouldn't have an obvious chance here on the evidence of his last two starts, when he has beaten only one horse home. But hopefully the step up in trip - he is a half-brother to the stayer Suraj - will see him improve and be competitive. But that's a very big if on his recent form. If Gallinule winner Leading Lights stays, he wins, doesn't he? Though I suppose the progressive Disclaimer may have something to say about that.

17:35 Ascot - Enrol

We really fancied her at Newmarket last time, but she was not her normal self throughout the race and never travelled, so she did remarkably well to finish a narrow second to Nocturn. She was very lame afterwards, having pulled a muscle in her quarters, but is fine now and if none the worse for that experience you have to give her a leading chance. She is 3lb higher from Newmarket but we think she is better than a 93-rated filly, and 7f and fast ground should be fine for her.

***

Win /€1,000 in our Royal Ascot Cash Draw!

Simply opt in and place a /€20 Exchange bet on a race at Royal Ascot taking place on Friday June 21 to gain an entry into the cash draw. You gain an additional entry for every Ascot race on which you risk /€20 on Friday (Maximum six entries). The draw takes place on Monday June 24. The first name drawn wins /€1,000!

AND if Battle of Marengo doesn't win the King Edward VII Stakes, we'll increase the total prize fund to /€1,500!

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