Against All Odds: Goals to flow at River

The River Plate players thought they'd blown their chances after defeat at Argentinos Juniors

River Plate are still in with a sniff of winning the Argentinian Torneo Final but they're going to need to improve their goal difference and Paul Robinson thinks that could lead to a high scoring match against Independiente this evening.

Last night's match between Velez and All Boys was suspended due to an incident in the crowd so it's money back and on to another game in Argentina today.

River Plate are third in the table and while they had appeared to blow their chances of finishing top when they lost at Argentinos Juniors on Monday, leaders Newell's Old Boys fell to a defeat at All Boys the following night. They're currently three points adrift of Newell's and level on points with Lanus in second. River have an inferior goal difference of three and five respectively over the sides above them though, so they could do with racking up a high margin victory over Independiente. 

Ramn Daz's men are strong at home - undefeated in 13 with eight of those being victories. They thrashed Atletico Rafaela 3-0 in their last match at Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti and while the previous four had all gone under 2.5 goals, their last couple of results at home to Independiente have been 3-2 and 1-3.

Independiente are 10th in the table but the system for relegation is different in Argentina compared to most countries. It's decided on a three year seasonal average and in those standings, they are struggling down in 19th so have to start winning to improve their points average. 

Miguel ngel Brindisi has started his second spell as manager of Rojo and his side are actually undefeated in six in the league. Three were victories and three were draws, with two of the games going over 3.5 goals. They did have a trio of 0-0's in that period but they surely have to start going for it now and the same applies to their opponents.

The stats do lean towards a low scoring affair but the odds are incredibly short and there are plenty of reasons to believe that we will see at least three goals. That's why, with under 2.5 goals trading around the 1.574/7 mark, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in River Plate v Independiente @ 1.574/7 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 18:15 GMT

2013 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 159 pts
Returned: 149.12 pts
P/L – 9.88 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)