West Brom v Southampton: Saints' dire defence makes Baggies a must bet

Are James Morrison and his WBA team-mates set to pick up another win?

Southampton may start winning soon but until the defensive statistics start improving it would be madness to put your money on them, says Joe Dyer in his look at the Premier League's Monday night offering

Southampton take the Premier League's worst defence to Steve Clarke's organised and effective West Brom for the division's first Monday nighter in a month. Home banker material, right? 

In all probability, yes. Going on what we've seen from the first nine games, Saints, with just four points to their name, are going to concede too many at the Hawthorns to secure the win they so desperately need. The 1.758/11 on Steve Clarke's well-oiled West Brom adding another win to the four already secured at home looks a safe bet.

Manchester City are the only team to beat WBA on their own patch with Liverpool, Everton, Reading and QPR all beaten. By contrast, Saints' away record reads four played, no points accumulated, 16 goals conceded.
Though you could be forgiven for not getting too excited at taking 1.758/11 about three points for the Baggies, going purely on early season form the 90 minute recommendation can only be a home win.

But football fans and punters know the game is rarely that simple. It was only this weekend that Spurs went off at a shorter price than West Brom only to lose at home to Wigan after all. So where can we find the positives for Nigel Atkin's struggling outfit? 

Hope for Saints comes in the form of an attack that has scored in every league game bar a 2-0 defeat to Wigan back in August. A Southampton goal looks likely, especially as the Baggies are without a league clean sheet in their last four games. Both teams to score is a 1.664/6 chance while a home clean sheet is rated a 3.02/1 shot by the Betfair market.

And when your defence is as bad as Southampton's, attacking is surely the best way to get something from the game. Rickie Lambert has four goals to his name and is the likely starter upfront while Saints' fans will be desperate to see Gaston Ramirez return. The Uruguayan midfielder was a starter during their only win this season, a 4-1 destruction of Aston Villa, but has missed the last three games through injury. Add in once capped England international Adam Lalana and Southampton have a whiff of danger about them. 

Sadly the defence is hapless and whether it's Shane Long (who is a doubt), Romelu Lukaku or both in the WBA forward line, you have to expect Saints to concede. The Opta stats explain in stark detail how bad the visitors' backline is - their total of 26 goals conceded in their first nine matches is the worst ever defensive performance at this stage of a Premier League season and equates to 110 goals conceded over the season, 10 more than the divisional record (Swindon 1993-94). 

West Brom have scored three goals in two home matches already, there's little reason to doubt they'll do it again and if we can get matched at 2.89/5 or above we'll have a bet. Sometime goalscorers like James Morrison and Zoltan Gera may see this as their chance to get on the scoresheet and a few quid on the Scottish international to find the back of the net is our chosen route of hitting a nice winner at a big price. 

Sunday's 1-1 draw between QPR and Reading has offered Southampton a chance to leapfrog their relegation rivals as they bid to beat the drop, but we don't expect West Brom to play the generous hosts on Monday night. It may not be the most exciting call, but ignoring those statistics about Saints defence would be plain bonkers. Keep it simple and back the Baggies to keep their good run going. 

Recommended Bets  
Back West Brom to win @ 1.758/11
Back three or more home goals @ 2.89/5 or above
Back James Morrison to score @ 5.59/2