Betfair Contrarian: Why Mitt Romney will be the next US presidentВ

The next President and First Lady? The Contrarian thinks so

The greatest political race on the planet is reaching its insult-trading crescendo following a brief break to let the hurricane through. The Contrarian loves a good political slanging match and is of the belief this one will end with Mitt Romney's portrait hanging in the Oval Office. Always expecting the unexpected and never settling for the status quo, the Contrarian outlines his reasons for Republican victory... 

Barack Obama may lead the betting, but the polls are neck and neck

President Obama 1.321/3 might be more popular with Betfair punters compared to challenger Romney 4.03/1 but none of this will matter when those all-important polls convert themselves into votes. The latest opinion polls have the duo down as inseparable, with the month of October witnessing a sizable surge in the Republican's popularity. Romney's approval rating has never been higher at any stage during this election trail and with under a week to go, this timely ascent up momentum mountain could prove critical. And a significant percentage of voters - believe it or not - still don't know which way they are going to vote even when they wake up on polling day.

When the going gets tough, the Republicans take their gloves off

When it comes to campaigning to win elections the Republicans are far more hardcore than their delicate Democrat cousins. Just look at the gritty campaign George Bush Junior fought against John Kerry to get himself re-elected for a second term back in 2004. Kings of 'swiftboating' - putting a hugely negative spin on a rival's record - Bush's candidacy team infamously attacked the military integrity of Senator Kerry in order to elevate their man to the higher moral plateau. 

Swing states like Romney

Much like elections here in the UK, these contests inevitably get decided by voters in those areas who find it hardest to do just that. Classic 'swing states' are always the focus of attention in the latter stages of these struggles and this year is no different with Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona and Florida among the usual suspects. With the polls claiming the duo are closer together than Romeo and Juliet (pre-poison), these states will take on huge significance once again. Ohio and Florida's large bundles of electoral votes (18 and 29 respectively) make them hugely influential when it comes to tipping the scales and as we saw in 2000, Florida ultimately decided the winner. Obama claimed this most famous of battle grounds back in 2008 but a souring economy and widespread home foreclosures have muddied the voting waters once again this year. 

Hurricane Sandy will churn the outcome

As the human costs of the "Frankenstorm" are still being counted across the Eastern United States, Romney's campaign may be about the only benefactor among the turmoil. While President Obama was forced to cancel an important trip through Ohio in order to command relief efforts from the White House, Romney was able to rally in Ohio and cleverly orchestrate it towards helping flood victims. If people are still without power come polling day, they may well register a protest vote.

If it's too close to call

Don't expect to see Romney making a gracious refusal to demand a recount (which Kerry did in 2004) should the voting come down to the wire again. The most contentious election result of modern times saw Bush cement his place in the history books after a 36-day recount took place in Florida back in 2000. The legitimacy of that result is still contested but, however shadowy the goings on were, the Republicans made sure it was their man taking his breakfast in the White House. And if it gets all bureaucratic again, remember both Ohio and Florida have Republican governors.