UBS Hong Kong Open: Dyson overdue to hoover up another title says The Punter

Simon Dyson, can he win again at Fanling?

Our man takes a detailed look at the action in Hong Kong this week, where Rory McIlroy's a very warm order to defend his title...

Tournament History
First staged in 1959, this will be the 54th UBS Hong Kong Open. Since 2001, it's been co-sanctioned between the Asian Tour and the European Tour.

Venue
Hong Kong Golf Club, Fanling, Hong Kong

Course Details
Par 70, 6,734 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 71.28

There are three courses at the Hong Kong Golf Club, the Old, the New and the Eden. A selection of holes from the New and the Eden courses are used for the championship.  It's a short tree-lined composite with Bermuda greens and six dog-legs. Water is in play on the tricky 18th hole and drainage ditches are in evidence on several holes for the seriously inaccurate.  The two par fives (the 2nd and the 12th) are always the two easiest holes on the course. Fiddly Fanling is a joy to behold and I always enjoy watching this event.

Useful Sites
Event Site
Course Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky at 5.00am on all four days

Last Five Winners
2011 - Rory McIlroy -12
2010 - Ian Poulter -22
2009 - Gregory Bourdy -19
2008 - Lin Wen-Tang -15 (playoff)
2007 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -15

What will it take to win the UBS Hong Kong Open?
Accuracy and good course management around fiddly Fanling is essential.  I can't get any stats for 2008 winner, Lin Wen-Tang, but in the last five years, the other four winners ranked in the top-three for Greens In Regulation for the week

Is there an identikit winner?
The list of champions is impressive and a quality European Tour player usually claims the prize. A look back at results of the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre may pay dividends. Players that fare well on that track often play well here too.

In-Play Tactics
A fast start appears important. Ian Poulter was languishing back in 28th after day one two years ago but the other four winners were all inside the top-five after the first round. 

Don't just rely on the European Tour website for live scores, I noticed at last week's Barclays Singapore Open that the Asian Tour's leaderboard was in front of the euro one more often than not and that can make a difference if you're trading in-running.

Laying off before the 18th might make sense if your picks in front. I still have nightmares about the 2005 renewal when James Kingston threw the event away on the 18th after trading at just 1.182/11. If you get your drive away it's a simple enough hole but that's a big if- if you're a journeyman pro looking for an infrequent win.

Market Leader
Rory McIlroy heads the market at just 3.613/5 but I have to admit, the price is about right. He's in superb form, is the defending champ with two other runner-up efforts from just five event starts and I wouldn't dream of putting anyone off backing him, but he's just too short for me. And I mean just. 

A couple of things stopped me from taking the plunge. Firstly, I had a nagging doubt that he may not keep the peddle down for all four rounds without a blip. That may sound daft but at the recent BMW Masters he had two nine hole spells where he only shot level par (the front-nine on Saturday and Sunday) and a couple of stutters like that will hinder him here. And secondly, he was a very slow starter in Singapore last week. 

And now he's been assigned an afternoon tee-time on day one, and that the forecast suggests windy conditions, I'm quite pleased I haven't backed him from the start (famous last words). I make no bones about it though, I'll have my eyes on him throughout the event and I'll be surprised if I don't back him at some stage.

Selections
Simon Dyson won this event way back in 2000 and came very close to repeating the feat two years ago. He came into the event under something of a cloud that week so the fact that he led the Barclays Singapore Open early on last week is encouraging. The twitchy Yorkshireman clearly likes the venue and might just be overdue another win.

Miguel Angel Jimenez has a great record at both this venue (winner twice) and at the aforementioned Crans-sur-Sierre, where he managed a tie for 11th this year, despite an opening round 77. The popular Spaniard's career is at the darker end of the twilight spectrum but I felt at a big price he was just about worth risking at one his favourite watering holes.

Thongchai Jaidee is another player with far more rounds behind him than he has in front of him and he's also another player with a fantastic record at Fanling. He's been a regular play of mine over the years here and I felt I couldn't abandon him at 55.054/1.

Pablo Larrazabal is an engaging and likeable character who has shown a liking for a tree-lined track. He was unlucky not to win the KLM Open a couple of months ago and he does have form here two - he was 4th on debut in 2008. I'm taking a risk on current form but that's in the price.

And finally, I'm giving Kristoffer Broberg another go. The prolific Challenge Tour winner is much bigger in price than he was when first crossing over to this tour and I felt he was worth a small speculative play at triple-figure odds.

Selections:
Simon Dyson @ 40.039/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ an average of 55.054/1
Thongchai Jaidee @ 55.054/1
Pablo Larrazabal @ 80.079/1
Kristoffer Broberg @ 100.099/1

I'll be back later with a preview of theSouth Africa Open.