суббота, 3 ноября 2012 г.

The Championship Weekend Previews: 'Boro a steal

'Boro boss Tony Mowbray

No matter how you look at it Middlesbrough are a much better side than Charlton, are in far better form, and are excellent on their travels. I wonder what Mike Norman's best bet is this weekend then!

Charlton 2.486/4 v Middlesbrough 3.02/1; The Draw 3.55n/a

No need to check your calendar people, Christmas hasn't come early, though you would have thought it had given the price on offer for Middlesbrough to win this game.

Football is a hard game to predict, and it might be that Charlton win this game, but if anyone can explain to me why Chris Powell's men are favourites to win on Saturday then there's a comment box below and I'd love to hear your reasons.

The fact is, Middlesbrough are easily one of the best away teams in this division. They were last season and they are this season. True, they were disappointing in August, losing three consecutive away league games, but since that final loss they have now won five - yes five - away games on the bounce in all competitions. Their overall record away from home this term is played 10 and won seven.

And it's not as if Boro's away form is a fluke either. Many good judges fancied Tony Mowbray's men to beat Premier League outfit Sunderland on Tuesday night, and they duly obliged, and their overall form now reads five wins in a row, including victories over decent outfits Hull, Brighton and Bolton.

I like Charlton, but their home form is dreadful. They've won just one from seven at The Valley this season, scoring just four league goals in the process. Their last two home games were losses to Watford and Barnsley, and yet now they are favourites to beat a much better team than those two; a side that has a 70% win ratio away from home, and a side that is bang in form at the top end of the Championship table.

As I say, anything can happen in football, but Middlesbrough at 3.02/1 to win this game is easily the most 'wrong' price I've seen all season.

Recommended Bet: Back Middlesbrough to win @ 3.02/1 (Best Bet)

Birmingham 1.9520/21 v Ipswich 4.1n/a; The Draw 3.814/5

When Birmingham came from 3-0 down to snatch a draw away to Millwall 11 days ago I had a feeling that could well be a turning point in their season. Four days later Lee Clarke's men went to Elland Road and beat Leeds United, so it appears my hunch could well be correct.

It's no good taking four points from six away from home however if you can't follow it up with a win in your next home game; and the fact that Brum now face bottom-of-the-table Ipswich at St Andrews should mean that another three points is in the offering. The only reason I can offer for Birmingham being close to even money to win this game is the 'new manager syndrome' - surely the home side should be more near 1.68/13 or 1.75/7.

Ipswich hired Mick McCarthy in midweek but if recent evidence is anything to go by he has a massive task on his hands to turn the club's fortunes around.

The Tractor Boys have taken just three points from the last 33 available to them, and last Saturday's home loss to equally out-of-form Sheff Wed highlighted how poor, and devoid of confidence, they are a present. It will take a huge effort for McCarthy to get a win in his first game in charge so I'm ignoring the curse of the new boss and backing the home side to win comfortably on Saturday afternoon.

Recommended Bet: Back Birmingham to win @ 1.9520/21

Sheff Wed 1.865/6 v Peterborough 4.67/2; The Draw 3.9n/a

After losing their first seven games in the Championship this season Peterborough appear to have turned the corner with four wins from their last six outings. They scored a total of 11 goals in those wins, though finding the back of the net has rarely been a problem for Darren Ferguson's men.

Keeping the ball out has most definitely been the Posh's problem, so the fact that they've conceded just four goals in those last six games is very encouraging.

The Owls finally recorded a win last weekend, but a victory over Ipswich is hardly a sign that they themselves have turned the corner. The fact is they have won just one of their last 11 league and cups games and taken just one point from their last four at Hillsborough.

I have Sheff Wed and Peterborough evenly matched, though the away side are easily playing the better football right now. Yet the home side are odds on to win this encounter, Posh are a tasty-looking 4.67/2.

Recommended Bet: Back Peterborough to win @ 4.67/2

Season P/L (1pt each bet, 2pts Best Bet)

Wagered: 48 pts
Returned: 53.68 pts
P/L + 5.68 pts

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