Premier League Tips: Bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs

Chelsea's Juan Mata has been on exceptional form

Armed with a bundle of stats from our good friends at Opta, Kevin Hatchard's been running the rule over this Saturday's 3pm kick-offs.

Swansea 5.14/1 vs Chelsea 1.855/6; the draw 3.814/5
If we put the well-publicised controversies about referee Mark Clattenburg back in Pandora's Box for now, Chelsea's two matches against Manchester United (a 3-2 home defeat in the PL, a 5-4 home win in the League Cup) have taught us a few things about the league leaders. Firstly, John Terry's absence (Pandora's Box again) has highlighted Chelsea's defensive weaknesses - in the first three games of his four-match ban, the Blues have shipped nine goals.

The games have also reinforced the idea that Chelsea have an explosive attack. Chelsea have scored 21 goals in nine PL games, and the Opta stats tell us that Juan Mata has played a starring role - he has scored four goals and made five assists in his last five PL games.

Swansea have often looked impressive under new boss Michael Laudrup, but against elite opposition they have struggled. They lost 3-0 at home to Everton, and went down 1-0 at Manchester City. The loss of hugely influential keeper Michel Vorm to injury won't help their cause. Chelsea have already won three PL away games, and I fancy a fourth at 1.855/6.

Sunderland 2.1211/10 vs Aston Villa 4.1n/a; the draw 3.45n/a
If the Premier League was ranked according to what happened in the central third of the pitch, Aston Villa would surely be top-six material, as they are efficient and hard-working in midfield. However, it's in the two penalty areas where Villa are coming unstuck. Villa are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league, and they have the second-worst goal tally (seven) in the division.

Goal-shy Sunderland have drawn six of their eight league games, and have scored the fewest goals in the division (six). They have lost just one of their last nine PL home games, but they've won just one of their last six home games against Villa.

Backing No in the Both Teams to Score market at 1.9420/21 looks prudent - it has paid out in three of Villa's four PL away games, and five of Sunderland's last six matches in all competitions. I expect a tight game between two nervy teams, so back the draw in the Half Time market at 2.111/10.

Fulham 2.8615/8 vs Everton 2.6813/8; the draw 3.45n/a
Fulham boss Martin Jol is steadily making a trip to Craven Cottage one of the toughest away days in the division. The Cottagers have won six of their last eight PL home games, and their only defeat in that sequence was a desperately unlucky defeat to Manchester City. Jol has shown he is willing to use the impressive array of offensive weaponry at his disposal, sometimes fielding three strikers, and Fulham have the third-best attack in the division (19 goals). Nine Fulham players have scored this term, and there have been three goals apiece for Dimitar Berbatov, Mladen Petric and Damien Duff.

Everton are also rattling in goals, netting 17 times in nine games. Six of those nine games have featured Over 2.5 Goals, while five have featured Over 3.5 Goals, including three of the last four. Five Everton players have scored at least twice in the league this term, and they generally look much more dangerous going forward than they have in recent seasons. I like the look of Over 3.5 Goals at 3.1511/5.

Tottenham 1.511/2 vs Wigan 7.413/2; the draw 4.1n/a
The Opta stats make it tough to oppose Spurs. Tottenham have won four of their last six meetings with the Latics, they have lost just three of their last 23 PL games at White Hart Lane, and they have scored at least two goals in their last six league games. Spurs forwards Jermain Defoe and Clint Dempsey particularly enjoy facing Wigan - Defoe has scored 11 goals in ten PL games against them, while Dempsey's scored more goals against Wigan (six) than any other PL opponent in his career.

Wigan have lost three of their four PL away games this term, and their morale will be on the floor after crashing out of the League Cup to fourth-tier Bradford City. If Spurs hit the front early on this could be a rout, so back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.68/5, and back Defoe to be First Goalscorer at 4.3100/30.

Norwich 2.89/5 vs Stoke 2.829/5; the draw 3.412/5
Norwich will have gained huge confidence from their 2-1 League Cup win over Spurs. The Canaries were outplayed for much of the match but scored twice late on. Boss Chris Hughton rested a host of key players, and he will hope his charges can continue their solid form at Carrow Road. Norwich beat Arsenal 1-0 in their last PL home game, and they have lost just once in front of their own fans this term.

Stoke haven't won any of their last 14 PL away games, and this term they have drawn three and lost two on the road. Overall the Potters have drawn six of their nine PL games, and with Stoke unbeaten in their last four meetings with Norwich I fancy another draw here.

Recommended Bets
Back Chelsea to beat Swansea at 1.855/6
Back No in the Both Teams to Score market in Sunderland vs Villa at 1.9420/21
Back the draw at half-time in Sunderland vs Villa at Half Time at 2.111/10
Back over 3.5 Goals in Fulham vs Everton at 3.1511/5
Back Jermain Defoe to be First Goalscorer for Spurs vs Wigan at 4.3100/30
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Spurs vs Wigan at 2.68/5
Back the draw in Norwich vs Stoke at 3.412/5