The X Factor 2012: Maloney winning the public vote?

Christopher Maloney

Eliot Pollak reviews the latest events in this year's X Factor, and he can't see beyond the top three for a winner but believes Scouser Christopher Maloney might go further than people think...

In one of those delicious 'for whatever a man sows, that he will also reap' moments (Galatians 6:7 as Dot Cotton might say), 2012 X Factor has revealed conclusively that viewing figures have no connotation at all to talent levels. Numbers tuning in to the show are reported to be the lowest ever, yet one could argue that the standard (admittedly at the top end only) has never been higher.

Ella Henderson, Jahmene Douglas and James Arthur would all have been shoo-ins to win the show in years gone by. Ella had a weak outing on Saturday, not because her voice faltered, but because her song choice was vanilla. She has dropped to above evens now in the Winner market, and can be backed at 2.1411/10.

Conversely the two boys had triumphant weeks - Jahmene (4.1n/a) is edging forward from the shadows, thanks to a genuinely depressing past combined with vocal runs that go on for weeks. If you're talking "journeys", this kid's got the lot. James (5.14/1) seems to be the most 'current' artist in there, with the right mix of Saturday night primetime popularity, and achingly cool Radio One credibility. You could imagine him being mates with that Grimshaw thing.

Consequently, there is also a fierce battle in the top Boys market. Both men are around the 1.330/100 mark, and the gap between them remains slighter than Louis Walsh's heterosexuality. The same applies to the Winner Without Ella price-ups, with the difference only a slightly larger 2.47/5 average for both men.

Yet the show, contrary to what it says on the tin, has never actually been about talent. Simon Cowell has always based it upon stories for the tabloids to feed off - off-stage hijinks, judges' tiffs and riveting back-stories. The point that 'Bloke/Bird can sing' just isn't a good enough Sun front page, has propped up the last decade of X Factor culture. And so even now, when there is plenty to pull viewers in with from a musical point of view, contrived bust-ups are the X Factor's chosen method of renewing a relationship with viewers e.g. Gary/Tulisa this week.

Much of the competitors are effectively also-rans, with few of them looking capable of breaking the final Three. The top Group market does look interesting however, with Union J still the favourites at 1.42/5. Meanwhile, Kye Sones and Lucy Spraggan would be wise to start packing away their things. Both were never going to be more than journeymen, and that journey is definitely coming to an end. It would take a miracle of preposterous proportions to see them last beyond the final five.

Talking of miracles, we still think there are two possible dark horses. Rylan Clark, but particularly Christopher Maloney. Despite his constant blubbing and infuriating song choices, the word on the grapevine is that Christopher is running away with the public vote. This ridiculous state of affairs should lose impact as the acts dwindle, but don't underestimate the power of the Scouse vote. It has after all worked wonders in the past for appalling acts like Ray Quinn. He is an appealing 6.05/1 to make the final week.

Rylan meanwhile is basically this year's Chico - he won't win, but could well hang around for far longer than is expected/welcome.