Premier League Stats: Magpies set to fly up the table

Newcastle are set to climb the table under Alan Pardew

This week's stats analysis suggests that West Brom are capable of remaining a top half team and that Newcastle are set to climb the table says Andrew Atherley...

This week's advice to football punters is to take a long hard look at the Premier League because what you see might be what you get at the end of the season.

The table at this stage of the season is the first reliable indicator of whether early form is likely to stand the test of time. It is now safer to regard West Brom as more than a surprise team, Fulham and West Ham as solid mid-table outfits, Liverpool and Sunderland as disappointing, and Reading and Southampton as prime relegation candidates.

Many punters might already have reached these conclusions, but what gives them statistical weight now is that this is the point of the season at which each team has played half of their rivals, either home or away. The cross-section of opposition each team has faced means the form is more likely to stand up over the rest of the season.

Last season, for example, 15 of the 20 Premier League teams moved no more than four places between now and the end of the season - and half of them moved no more than two places. The biggest mover was Everton, who went from 16th at this stage of the season to seventh in the final table, and in some ways their improvement was predictable because of their history of top-half finishes after slow starts.

It is rarer for a team to drop more than six places between now and the end of the season - and more likely that they will fall by no more than four places. That indicates West Brom are likely to be a top-half team even if they are unable to maintain their current fifth place.

That is important information for punters when it comes to assessing individual match-ups. West Brom have a record of four wins and a draw from five games against bottom-half teams and this weekend they visit 13th-placed Wigan, who have won only one out of four at home to top-half teams. Those formlines now have much more substance to them and West Brom once again look one of the most solid bets in the Premier League.

With a head start on the Asian handicap, West Brom are worth backing off 0 & +0.5 at 1.9420/21.

Newcastle might be regarded as one of the under-performing teams so far this season, as they are eight points behind their total at the same stage of last season. They were third then and are only 10th now, but appearances might be deceptive because they remain a very solid side under Alan Pardew's guidance.

Newcastle's only two defeats this season have been against big-six teams (Manchester United and Chelsea) and their win rate against the rest of the division - which is what really counts in the accumulation of points - is an impressive 55% in this calendar year, with only three defeats out of 20.

That makes Newcastle a team to follow over the coming weeks, as their next game against one of the big six is not until the visit of Manchester City to St James' Park on December 15. Four of Newcastle's six Premier League games before then are against teams from the bottom half of the table, which gives them an opportunity for a strong move up the table.

The first game in that sequence, at home to West Ham on Sunday, could be one of the toughest. But Newcastle are still worth backing at odds of 2.111/10 .

Their home record in 2012 against teams from outside the big six is won seven and drawn three out of 10.

Pick of the stats

Aston Villa v Manchester United
United are unbeaten in their last 16 visits to Villa Park, with a win rate of 63%.

Stoke v QPR
Ten of Stoke's last 12 home league games have had under 2.5 goals.

Recommended Bets

Back West Brom off 0 & +0.5 on Asian handicap v Wigan @ 1.9420/21
Back Newcastle to beat West Ham @ 2.111/10

*****

*Unsure what Asian Handicap betting is? Then don't miss our Asian Handicap section, including a video tutorial, at our Help & Learning centre