Premier League Stats: Chelsea's miserable run set to continue

Stamford Bridge is no longer a fortress

Andrew Atherley delivers all the telling stats ahead of this weekend's big clash in the Premier League, and they don't look good for those hoping for a Chelsea revival...

The stats are stacking up against Chelsea and, just when it seemed their problems could not get any worse, along come Premier League champions Manchester City for Sunday's showdown at Stamford Bridge.

It's far from the best timing for Roberto di Matteo, whose troops are still reeling from the 3-0 midweek defeat at Juventus that left their Champions League defence hanging by a thread. Di Matteo has managed just two wins from the last eight games in all competitions and the stats indicate Chelsea's good start to the season owed a considerable amount to a favourable fixture list.

Six of their first seven league games were against teams currently in the bottom half of the table and, even as they racked up the early points that put them on top, there were signs that they would struggle once they came up against better-class opposition on a regular basis.

Having lost 3-2 to City in the Community Shield, albeit after playing with 10 men for more than half of the game, they were thrashed 4-1 by Atletico Madrid in the European Super Cup. More seriously, they were pegged back to 2-2 by Juventus in the Champions League encounter at the Bridge.

The rot has really set in over the past month with crucial defeats by Shakhtar Donetsk, Manchester United, West Brom and Juventus. Putting all the form together against top-half teams in the Premier League and the elite members of their Champions League group, Chelsea's record this season is won three, drawn two and lost six (five wins only if the one-sided Champions League demolition of the minnows Nordsjaelland and the 5-4 Capital One Cup victory over Manchester United are included).

One of the killer stats is the fact that Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet against a team of any note this season. They conceded three against Manchester City, four against Atletico Madrid, five in two meetings with Juventus, four in two matches against Shakhtar Donetsk and seven in two games against Manchester United.

That does not bode well against City, who are unbeaten in their last q0 away games in the Premier League when scoring (seven wins and three draws). City's last away defeat when scoring was 2-1 against Chelsea but that was almost 12 months ago and most of the formlines indicate that City are very hard to beat unless their attack is shut out.

Since the start of last season, City have scored in 44 of their 50 Premier League games and have won 36 (82%) and lost only one (that 2-1 defeat at Chelsea).

Another stat against Chelsea is their recent poor record at the Bridge against big-six opponents. Home form used to be their strength in the Jose Mourinho era, but since the start of last season they have won only one out of seven at home to the big six.

All that makes City attractive at better than even-money off 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.03n/a .

Anyone who took the advice in this column in August to back QPR for relegation may now consider trading out some or all of the bet. At the time of the advice QPR were 4.84/1 but now they are firm favourites to be relegated at 1.695/7, having taken just four points from their opening 12 games.

It's the joint-worst start to a Premier League season and relegation is probable, although there is a sliver of hope for QPR in the fact that three of the previous nine clubs with a similarly poor record (six points or fewer from the first 12 games) escaped the drop.

Pick of the stats

Aston Villa v Arsenal
Arsenal are unbeaten at Villa Park since 1998, although results have been mixed (seven wins, six draws)

Wigan v Reading
Wigan's home win rate during Roberto Martinez's reign is just 27%, with only one win out of six this season.

Recommended Bet

Man City off 0 on the Asian handicap v Chelsea at 2.03n/a

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