Premier League Stats: Back Red Devils to beat the Gunners

United were in sensation form against Arsenal last season

Andrew Atherley explains why when Manchester United score at home to Arsenal they win, and with the Red Devils regualary scoring at Old Trafford then they are a good bet for victory on Saturday...

The big-match roadshow rolls on to Old Trafford this weekend for Manchester United v Arsenal and, as usual with big-six clashes nowadays, the first option to consider is over 2.5 goals.

Following last week's 3-2 win for United at Chelsea, six of the eight meetings between big-six teams this season have had over 2.5 goals. That's a 75% rate, up from the already high 67& in last season's big-six matches.

Overall this fixture shows a majority of games with over 2.5 goals (10 out of 16 in the period since Arsenal moved to the Emirates stadium) but it is notable that the trend is much stronger when Arsenal are at home (six out of seven over 2.5 goals).

It could be that United's 8-2 win at Old Trafford last season was a one-off (most definitely a one-off in reference to the scoreline), with a more balanced reading of the results indicating that United have become dominant over Arsenal and consequently can score home and away, whereas the Gunners' decline has reduced their goal threat on the road.

That could explain why over 2.5 goals is the predominant outcome when United are the visitors, but less likely when Arsenal do not contribute so readily to the scoreline on the road. In the recent meetings, Arsenal have averaged 1.43 goals per game at home but only 0.56 away.

Over 2.5 Goals looks a bet to consider seriously at 1.768/11 but it is difficult to recommend given the doubt about Arsenal's scoring capability (they have managed just six goals in five away games this season).

If it is true that the goals make-up has become influenced by United's dominance over Arsenal, then it must follow that Sir Alex Ferguson's side are a good bet for the win at 1.674/6.

The stats back up the argument that United have opened a significant advantage in this fixture. In the period since Arsenal moved home, United's overall record against the Gunners is won 11, drawn two and lost only three. The 16 head-to-heads before that showed a more even split of six wins for United, four for Arsenal and six draws.

United's home record against Arsenal in the most recent period is six wins, one draw and one defeat. The common factor in United's two failures to win was that Arsenal kept a clean sheet, and a shutout looks a prerequisite if the visitors are to get anything from Saturday's match.

United have won the last 12 at home to Arsenal when scoring - you have to go back almost 13 years to find the last time Arsenal conceded and didn't lose at Old Trafford.

That scoring stat puts the odds heavily in United's favour, given their record of having scored in their last 53 home league games. United have won 46 of those 53 games (87%).

United's scoring record is strong against all of the big six, not just Arsenal, and so is their win record. Since the big six solidified as a group in the 2009-10 season - which coincidentally was United's first campaign after the departure of Cristiano Ronaldo - United have scored in all 16 home games against the other members of the elite and they have won 13 (81%).

When they have scored in big-six games on the road, United's win rate since 2009-10 is 64%. That is a high percentage in such tough away games and emphasises how important a clean sheet is likely to be for Arsenal, while the 6.611/2 on offer for an Arsenal clean sheet shows how unlikely that is to happen.

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Recommended Bet

Back Man United to beat Arsenal at 1.674/6