пятница, 2 ноября 2012 г.

Handicappers' Corner: Curtain Call for the jumps season

Much of the weekend's best racing came from Aintree

Just as the Charity Shield is the traditional curtain raiser for the English football season, this weekend's offerings at Aintree and Chepstow now fill a similar role for racegoers as they turn their attention away from the Flat to the winter game, writes jumps handicapper Phil Turner.

The Grade 2 prizes on offer at both venues represent the first big jumping races on British soil of the autumn and often throw up results that are difficult to assess, which can be filed under the tag of "early-season form". Admittedly, "early-season" arguably isn't the most accurate description given that the 2012/13 campaign is already six months old (Tony McCoy nearly has another century of winners on the board!), but it is safe to say that most of the top yards tend to reintroduce their big guns at this time of year and the resulting form sometimes isn't the most reliable due to the varying degrees of fitness on show.

A case in point was the latest renewal of the Monet's Garden Old Roan Chase at Aintree on Saturday (a Grade 2 limited handicap that has twice been used as Kauto Star's curtain raiser for the jumps season), which saw the Nick Williams-trained For Non Stop (Timeform rating c163+) rout a competitive-looking field. His twenty-three length defeat of top weight Wishfull Thinking (c161) clearly represents significant improvement on his 2011/12 novice form, but assessing exactly how much he's progressed is a tricky process, particularly as the likelihood is that none of his ten rivals ran to their best. Indeed, a breakneck gallop set by outsiders Stagecoach Pearl and Mad Max was always going to expose any fitness and/or stamina deficiencies, so it wasn't a surprise to see most of the field cry enough early in the straight. In addition, Wishfull Thinking (who could hardly be described as a model of consistency over the past twelve months) was arguably left with too much to do in relation to the very easy winner.

Therefore, we feel that the percentage call is to take a conservative view of the form for the time being. That said, For Non Stop's smooth success must be viewed as a compliment to those who defeated him in Grade 1 novice company last season - notably his Cheltenham conqueror Sir des Champs (c164p) - and time may even show him to be full value for Saturday's wide margin of victory, particularly as he's with a yard which regularly improves horses from season to season. The Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham has been mooted as For Non Stop's next target, though his prospects for that will greatly depend on what view the BHA assessor takes of this wide-margin Aintree win.

There was another instance of "early-season form" over at Chepstow later that afternoon, when the seemingly-exposed Oiseau de Nuit (c155) ran out a ten-length winner of a quite valuable two-mile handicap in which none of his six rivals seemed at their best, with fitness issues again a factor, though several also didn't convince with their jumping and/or attitude. Unquestionably the most disappointing display came from 2011 winner Tataniano (c163), who could manage only a well-held fifth this time around, whilst the tame manner in which he folded on the home turn almost certainly wasn't solely down to his twelve-month absence from the track.

Oiseau de Nuit was the final leg of an across-the-card treble for Colin Tizzard's in-form stable. Ex-pointer Masters Hill (c126p) had set the ball running by springing a surprise in the staying novice chase earlier on that Chepstow card, which was another result to fall under the "early-season" category as he was chased home by three rivals returning from lay-offs who ran some way below their useful hurdling form. Nevertheless, Masters Hill still looked a useful prospect in his own right and will be well worth his place in better company.

The training honours at Chepstow, however, went to Philip Hobbs after he saddled a one, two, three in the valuable Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle. Irish import Lamb Or Cod (h129p) showed much improved form for his new yard in just edging out 2011 winner Arthurian Legend (h135) and recent Fontwell scorer Tony Star (h139). In contrast to some of the other weekend results mentioned already, this appeals as strong handicap form for the time of year and could be a race worth following, particularly with regards to the up-and-coming Lamb Or Cod, who is one to keep an eye on in similar company over the coming months.

Hobbs' West Country rivals Paul Nicholls and David Pipe also have their teams in rude health as the season now begins in earnest. The former looks to have another smart French recruit on his hands in Wonderful Charm (h143), who was a ready winner of the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow, but will have to compete outside of novice company from the end of this month. Meanwhile, Pipe saddled no less than five winners (albeit at a lower level) over the weekend, the most eye-catching of which was Aintree maiden hurdle winner Gevrey Chambertin (h115P), who has clearly inherited plenty of the ability possessed by his full brother Grands Crus (c157p) - the latter represents the same connections and is also prominent in the aforementioned ante-post market for the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

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