La Liga Preview: An array of striking bets

Sevilla's Alvaro Negredo is flying

Tobias Gourlay surveys the goalscorer markets from around Spain and unmasks the value bets on each of this weekend's five televised games

Barcelona v Celta Vigo
Saturday 17:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Barcelona 1.091/11 Celta 44.043/1 draw 14.013/1

Celta Vigo have lost 4/4 on the road and their trip to the Camp Nou looks pretty pointless too. Tito Vilanova's Barcelona are W8-D1-L0 this season, only Real Madrid denting in an otherwise perfect record. 

One glimmer of hope: Lionel Messi might not play for the home side. Our Messi stat is that he has scored braces or better in 14 of his last 24 Liga appearances, but now the little man's expecting an even littler man of his own. His girlfriend's due and he missed Friday training to go to the hospital.

The question around Messi's availability makes any bet a game-time decision. If he plays, Any Unquoted might appeal at 2.1211/10 in the Correct Score market. The league leaders have scored ten goals in their last two matches. Jordi Alba, David Villa and Cesc Fabregas - none of whom were serious factors last season - encourage the team to prioritise attack over tiki-taka and another four team goals would be within reach.

If Messi is absent, Villa could be of interest in the goalscorer markets. He scored in the cup in midweek and has four Liga goals from seven appearances, only one of which has lasted more than an hour. Given a full 90 minutes on Saturday, evens would be a good price to back Spain's record goalscorer to raise his club total by at least one.

Just beware Javi Varas.

Real Madrid v Real Zaragoza
Saturday 19:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Real 1.121/8 Zaragoza 30.029/1 draw 12.5n/a

There are five televised games this week and the most appealing bets are outside the capital.

We can always find room for Cristiano Ronaldo, however. The world's second-best player has scored in each of his last eight club appearances, notching braces or hat-tricks in four of them.

But is he standing on the shoulders of giants? The Portuguese has been the first goalscorer in only 4/14 this season. By way of comparison, Gonzalo Higuain - not a giant, admittedly - has struck first in 5/13.

Valencia v Atletico Madrid
Saturday 21:00 (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Valencia 2.68/5 Atletico 2.9215/8 draw 3.613/5

Los Che have scored ten times in four games at the Mestalla this term. It's still their worst start to a league campaign in 12 seasons (ever yours, Opta), but at least they should be able to find the back of the net against second-placed Atletico.

If Diego Simeone's visitors include Radamel Falcao, you should fancy them to score too. Both Teams to Score will look like easy money, so long as Mauricio Pellegrino picks a no. 10 like Jonas for the hosts, ahead of a more defensive midfielder like Tino Costa.

Over 2.5 Goals might appeal too, with 10/13 at the Mestalla going that way recently. It's odds-on, however, and only four of Atletico's 16 away games under Simeone have produced three goals or more.

Falcao's scoring streak is now eight. At the time of writing it's not clear where the To Score market will settle; anything beyond evens and you've probably got a bet. If you want something longer, he's been the First Goalscorer in 4/8.

The teams' league positions - Valencia are eleventh - lend some appeal to the outsiders, but the home side's scoring record looks just a little too good, largely because Atletico have managed just a single goal in three of their four away games so far.

Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.715/7

Granada v Athletic Bilbao
Sunday 18:45 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Granada 2.447/5 Athletic 3.1511/5 draw 3.45n/a

Athletic Bilbao won hearts and minds with a dazzling run to last season's Europa League final, but new fans might be surprised by Marcelo Bielsa's poor away record: he's helped the Basques win only 4/23 on the road.

Eleven of the most recent 15 have gone Over 2.5 Goals and that tallies neatly with Granada's record of 9/10 at home to bottom-half teams like Athletic. (That lowly status might be a second shock for newbies.)

Athletic have leaked 12 in four away games this season and Opta has an idea for a goalscorer: Youssef El Arabi has scored in each of Granada's last three Liga outings.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.111/10

Sevilla v Levante
Sunday 20:30 (Live on Sky Sports 1)
Sevilla 1.538/15 Levante 7.413/2 draw 4.3100/30

Sevilla and Levante are next to each other in the top half of La Liga, but, because both sides have been earning almost all of their points at home, the market says Michel's men are the only winners of their meeting in Andalusia.

In that case, Alvaro Negredo is a bet in the goalscorer markets. Sevilla's main striker has located the onion bag in 5/9 Liga games this season, including 3/4 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan.

Recommended Bet
Back Alvaro Negredo To Score @ 2.01/1