DP World Tour Championship 2012: Fatigued Rory to falter in day one 2-ball

Dan fancies Peter Hanson to get the better of a fatigued Rory on Thursday

Dan Geraghty is attempting to finish his season in profit, which means he needs at least three winners from his five selected day one 2-ball bets...

The time has (nearly) come to admit defeat in the first round two/three balls experiment; though wait, it might be the final meaningful tournament of the year, but not until the last two-ball have signed their cards on Thursday afternoon will I admit it's over.

This week's column is a reckless bumper edition in a last minute (possibly doomed) quest to end the year in profit.

Branden Grace looks a juicy price to outscore man of the moment Ian Poulter on day one. Poulter has looked a different animal since his insanely brillliant Ryder Cup performance. However, he was ultimately defeated on his last outing in Australia and may be going to the well a few too many times. South African Grace is no slouch, he has won a frankly unbelievable four times this season on the European Tour and will surely become a real household name next season as he takes part in all of the big events.

Niclas Colsaerts has also had a stellar year and bears many similarities to last year's victor here Alvaro Quiros. The Belgian is paired with Lee Westwood on day one; the Englishman has had some tough decisions to make recently and in all honesty has thus far struggled to end the year in top form.

It's been a breakthrough season for Jamie Donaldson. He's propelled himself into the big leagues and I'm scratching my head in the difference in price between him and two-ball partner George Coetzee. Coetzee has yet to win on tour and although he performed admirably when runner up last week in his native South Africa, surely he shouldn't be a full 90 points bigger than the Welshman who has broken his duck this year.

In keeping with my possibly mad scheme of taking on the form players, I will oppose Matteo Manassero who has been first and fourth in his last two outings. Marcel Siem can outpower the young Italian who has been only 32nd and 34th (in a shortened field) here in two previous visits.

The sting has been taken out of the final two ball of the first round; Rory McIlroy has already won the Race to Dubai so Peter Hanson is playing for pride (and a vast amount of money). However, the Swede is playing against a McIlroy that has readily admitted he is mentally fatigued so perhaps we shouldn't expect too much from the young Northern Irishman whose finishing positions have been steadily worse in each of the past three years here.

Recommended Bets

3pts Back Branden Grace @ 3.02/1
3pts Back Niclas Colsaerts @ 2.77/4
3pts Back Jamie Donaldson @ 2.77/4
3pts Back Marcel Siem @ 2.915/8
3pts Back Peter Hanson @ 2.77/4

Season Profit/Loss: -9.9pts

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