ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Tipsy could test Federer

Will Roger Federer have his eye on the ball at the O2 today?

Tennis expert Sean Calvert began the week in good style by landing a winner on day one of the ATP World Tour Finals on Monday. Sean gives us his best bet on day two in the clash between Roger Federer and Janko Tipsarevic..

It was a good start to the final event on the 2012 ATP World Tour calendar at the O2 in London on Monday, as my opening bet of the week was successful. 

It was always likely to be an up and down affair between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych and after a nervy start the Scot was able to come through in three and bring my bet home at a decent 2.506/4.

Day two of the World Tour Finals sees the entrance of defending champion Roger Federer, who takes on the big outsider of the tournament Janko Tipsarevic. 

On the face of it this looks like the perfect opener for Federer against an opponent who he's beaten five times from five attempts and someone who was last seen quitting in Paris last week with all sorts of supposed ailments. 

I have a feeling that there wasn't a great deal wrong with Janko last week and similarly to others in Bercy it appears that the Serb opted to save himself for this tournament, but he's now claiming to be suffering from a virus, which clouds things a little.

It shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone to see him retire, as he now has either quit or withdrawn 28 times in his career, compared with Federer's two.

At his best Tipsarevic can certainly give the Swiss a run for his money and an interesting fact is that Federer's opening round robin match in the year-end championships have gone to three sets six times in the last seven years.

So, I wouldn't be too keen to run out and put all of the Christmas present money on a 2-0 Fed win at around 1.42/5 based on those stats.

He should come though this one, but he hasn't been at his peak since the summer, losing to Berdych in New York, Murray in Shanghai, and Juan Martin Del Potro in front of his home crowd in Basel.

He skipped Paris of course and it may take him a set just to get going here, so the bet I like is the 2.0811/10 about Tipsy with a 4.5 games start on the handicap. If he's feeling OK he could go close and as we've already seen, he's not shy of quitting if he's not feeling well.

Federer failed to make the 4.5 game handicap against Thomaz Bellucci and Paul-Henri Mathieu in Basel and Tipsy, if he's not hampered by this virus, should add his name to that list. 

Recommended Bet
Back Tipsarevic + 4.5 games to beat Federer at 2.0811/10