US Politics: State betting offers the best value as Obama's lead widens

President Obama
As Mitt Romney follows one gaffe with another, the US Presidential election is beginning to look like a one-horse race. Nevertheless, there are plenty of alternative bets available on the individual states. Paul Krishnamurty explains...
It was immediately billed as the moment Mitt Romney lost the election and, even after a few days to reflect and gauge any polling effect, the effect of that video still seems as bad. Having effectively dismissed 47% of America as parasites that it wasn't his job to worry about, Romney and his team need to pull off the smartest rebranding in living memory. The market wholeheartedly agrees, with Obama now trading at just 1.271/4 to win a second term, while at 4.67/2 Romney is at his biggest odds since early primary season.
Presidential challengers only get a few windows of opportunity to define themselves, when the voting public are watching. Romney has been making gaffes since the beginning of the primary season, but none received anywhere near the same damaging media exposure. The image conjured up by The Daily Show, of Romney as The Simpson's billionaire villain Monty Burns, will be hard to shake off. The video hurts because Romney's words fit perfectly with Obama's narrative - that his opponents are heartless plutocrats; social darwinians only concerned with furthering their own interests at the expense of the middle-class. The release of Romney's tax returns, showing he paid 14% tax on nearly $14M earnings in 2011, is unlikely to help such perceptions either.
In truth, the polls were already turning sour for Romney before the video was released. The headline national voting intention may still point to a close race, but in the toss-up states where it really matters, momentum has swung firmly behind Obama. 26 out of 29 polls taken in the battlegrounds between Wednesday and Friday showed an Obama lead, usually by a rising margin. Most significant are the solid leads in Virginia and Ohio, either of which could be decisive in taking Obama very close to the winning electoral college total. Friday's two polls showing Obama leading in North Carolina - a state previously estimated as leaning Republican - suggest that task could become even more straightforward.
Of course, there is still time for things to change, especially given that the debates haven't started yet. Romney fared pretty well in that format during the primaries, although this time he's up against slightly more formidable opposition than Rick 'Oops' Perry and Michele Bachmann. There are still 46 days left for an unpredictable event to alter perceptions, or for Obama to make a disastrous gaffe of his own. The margins are all still pretty small and therefore dependent on Obama's voters turning out. Talk of a potential landslide in is neither the Democrats interest for that reason, or a media that needs an exciting contest. Nevertheless, until there is signficantly better news for Romney in the swing states, the betting will remain one-sided.
If you do take the view that Romney can still turn this around, a far better value option lies in backing him to win some of the individual states without which victory would be impossible. Even if he wins plausible targets like Wisconsin and Ohio, that may not be enough to win the Presidency, yet without them there are very few paths to victory. Rather than opposing Obama at 1.271/4 outright, it makes better sense to lay him at 1.330/100 in these two states. Wisconsin is particularly interesting as Paul Ryan is a Congressman there.
Equally, if Obama is indeed pulling away, 2.588/5 about winning North Carolina is unlikely to last long. The Democrats will have established a strong ground campaign after holding their convention here, which may help explain their improving numbers. Obama won this state in 2008 against John McCain - a man who, whatever his faults, had infinity more popular appeal than this year's Republican candidate.